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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Atletico-MG and Fortaleza EC share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at MRV Arena, Regular Season - 16, as Atletico-MG and Fortaleza EC drew 3-3 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico-MG 1.60 xG and Fortaleza EC 0.79 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Atletico-MG beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fortaleza EC outscored their 0.79 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico-MG attack 1.01 / defence 0.84 against Fortaleza EC attack 0.95 / defence 1.15, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Atletico-MG 57% | Draw 25% | Fortaleza EC 18%, with Atletico-MG to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico-MG 47%, Fortaleza EC 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Atletico-MG's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Fortaleza EC's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Atletico-MG 1.29 PPG, Fortaleza EC 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Atletico-MG (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights