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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie A · Regular Season - 16

Kick-off

Wed 12 Nov 2025

23:30

Venue

MRV Arena

Competition

Serie A

Brazil

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Atletico-MG Win

57%

Atletico-MG

1.76

25%

Draw

4.01

18%

Fortaleza EC

5.47

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

14.7%

Home win

Most likely

2 – 0

11.8%

Home win

1 – 1

11.6%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.60

Atletico-MG xG

Total xG

2.39

0.79

Fortaleza EC xG

57%
25%
18%
Atletico-MGDrawFortaleza EC

1.76

57%

Home win

4.01

25%

Draw

5.47

18%

Away win

Goals Markets

69%

Over 1.5

1.45

31%

Under 1.5

3.23

43%

Over 2.5

2.33

57%

Under 2.5

1.75

22%

Over 3.5

4.55

78%

Under 3.5

1.28

9%

Over 4.5

11.11

91%

Under 4.5

1.10

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

44%

BTTS Yes

2.30

56%

BTTS No

1.77

Clean Sheet

46%

Atletico-MG

2.20

20%

Fortaleza EC

4.97

Win to Nil

26%

Atletico-MG

3.87

4%

Fortaleza EC

27.22

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 9.2 7.2 2.8 0.7 0.1
1 14.7 11.6 4.5 1.2 0.2
2 11.8 9.3 3.6 1.0 0.2
3 6.3 5.0 1.9 0.5 0.1
4 2.5 2.0 0.8 0.2
5 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.604
λ Away (xG) 0.787
Total xG 2.391
League avg home goals 1.386
League avg away goals 0.979
Atletico-MG attack strength 1.008
Atletico-MG defence strength 0.844
Fortaleza EC attack strength 0.953
Fortaleza EC defence strength 1.148
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 70 / 70