Atletico-MG 0-0 Botafogo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Botafogo at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atletico-MG vs Botafogo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Botafogo make the trip to Estádio Raimundo Sampaio to face Atletico-MG in Serie A (matchday 34). The match kicks off on Thursday 21 November 2024 at 00:30 UK time.
Current Form
Atletico-MG's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Atletico-MG's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Atletico-MG are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Botafogo (all games): 6W 4D 0L across their last 10 — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.20 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling, Botafogo have posted 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Botafogo are 1.30 PPG clear of Atletico-MG over their recent games (2.20 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Botafogo edge it 3 wins to 2, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 8 Jul 2024, ended Atletico-MG 0–3 Botafogo — a Botafogo win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Atletico-MG — key trading statistics (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games).
Botafogo — key trading statistics (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico-MG 54% versus Botafogo 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atletico-MG 48% | Botafogo 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico-MG 1.12 xG and Botafogo 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico-MG attack 1.096 / defence 1.294 | Botafogo attack 1.172 / defence 0.763. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 0.992. Botafogo bring a tight defence (rating 0.763, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Atletico-MG's projected output down. Atletico-MG's defence rating of 1.294 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Botafogo's projected output up. Data: built from Atletico-MG's last 71 games and Botafogo's last 71.
Result probabilities: Atletico-MG 28% | Draw 26% | Botafogo 46%. Fair-value odds: Atletico-MG 3.54 | Draw 3.90 | Botafogo 2.17. Botafogo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Botafogo are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Botafogo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Atletico-MG 70% (last 10 home games) | Botafogo 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico-MG vs Botafogo | Competition: Serie A, matchday 34 | Venue: Estádio Raimundo Sampaio • Kick-off: Thursday 21 November 2024 at 00:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico-MG 28% | Draw 26% | Botafogo 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Atletico-MG 1.12 / Botafogo 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico-MG attack 1.096 / def 1.294 | Botafogo attack 1.172 / def 0.763 | league avg home 1.341 / away 0.992 • Poisson stance: Botafogo (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Atletico-MG xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Botafogo xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Atletico-MG vs Botafogo FAQs
What time does Atletico-MG vs Botafogo kick off?
Atletico-MG vs Botafogo kicked off at 00:30 UK time on Thursday 21 November 2024 at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What was the final score in Atletico-MG vs Botafogo?
Atletico-MG 0 - 0 Botafogo.
Where is Atletico-MG vs Botafogo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What competition is Atletico-MG vs Botafogo part of?
Atletico-MG vs Botafogo is a Serie A fixture (matchday 34) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico-MG vs Botafogo?
Our statistical model gives Atletico-MG a 28% chance of winning, Botafogo a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Botafogo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico-MG vs Botafogo?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Atletico-MG and Botafogo will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Atletico-MG vs Botafogo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Atletico-MG's attack at 1.10x the league average against Botafogo's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Botafogo's attack (1.17x) against Atletico-MG's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from Atletico-MG's last 71 games and Botafogo's last 71 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Botafogo Win
28%
3.54
26%
3.90
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Atletico-MG xG
Total xG
2.63
1.50
Botafogo xG
3.54
28%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
6%
15.93
15%
6.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 10.9 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Atletico-MG vs Botafogo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico-MG vs Botafogo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Atletico-MG and Botafogo expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Atletico-MG and 1.50 for Botafogo, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico-MG vs Botafogo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 71 outings, Atletico-MG have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 29W 21D 21L record — D-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Botafogo's form line: 38W 18D 15L from 71 games, 1.86 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Atletico-MG against 1.86 for Botafogo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Atletico-MG have posted 1.71 PPG from their last 35 home games (17W 9D 9L).
On the road, Botafogo have gone 16W 10D 9L from their last 35 away games — 1.66 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Atletico-MG are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Botafogo are on 1.55 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Botafogo in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico-MG
Current Season
Botafogo
Current Season
Atletico-MG (Home) vs Botafogo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Atletico-MG
Current Season
Botafogo
Current Season
❓ Atletico-MG vs Botafogo Form FAQs
What form are Atletico-MG and Botafogo in coming into this match?
Atletico-MG have gone 29W 21D 21L in their last 71 games (1.52 PPG), while Botafogo have gone 38W 18D 15L in their last 71 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico-MG at home or Botafogo away?
Atletico-MG's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico-MG at home: 1.71 PPG; Botafogo away: 1.66 PPG.
Have Atletico-MG or Botafogo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atletico-MG have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Botafogo in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to July 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 5 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Botafogo won Botafogo 3-0 Atletico-MG on 8 Jul 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atletico-MG have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Botafogo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Atletico-MG
2
Draws
5
Botafogo
Recent Meetings
❓ Atletico-MG vs Botafogo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico-MG and Botafogo?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Atletico-MG have won 3, Botafogo have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atletico-MG and Botafogo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 November 2026: Botafogo 1-0 Atletico-MG.
Who has won more matches between Atletico-MG and Botafogo?
Botafogo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Atletico-MG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Botafogo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico-MG 60%, Botafogo 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Atletico-MG) and 43% (Botafogo).
On the defensive side: Botafogo in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico-MG home games / Botafogo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Atletico-MG vs Botafogo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Atletico-MG and Botafogo matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Atletico-MG's games and 51% of Botafogo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Atletico-MG and Botafogo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Atletico-MG's recent games and 43% of Botafogo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atletico-MG and Botafogo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Atletico-MG's recent matches and 60% of Botafogo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Atletico-MG's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio, Regular Season - 34, as Atletico-MG and Botafogo drew 0-0 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico-MG 1.12 xG and Botafogo 1.50 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Atletico-MG fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Botafogo landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico-MG attack 1.10 / defence 1.29 against Botafogo attack 1.17 / defence 0.76, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico-MG 28% | Draw 26% | Botafogo 46%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico-MG 48%, Botafogo 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico-MG's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Botafogo's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atletico-MG 1.52 PPG, Botafogo 1.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Atletico-MG (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.49 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Botafogo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.