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Dominant Atletico-MG run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Bahia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atletico-MG beat Bahia 3-0 at MRV Arena, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico-MG 1.54 xG and Bahia 0.82 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Atletico-MG beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bahia landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico-MG attack 0.90 / defence 0.93 against Bahia attack 0.94 / defence 1.21, drawn from 68/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Atletico-MG 54% | Draw 26% | Bahia 20%, with Atletico-MG to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico-MG 46%, Bahia 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Atletico-MG's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Bahia's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Atletico-MG 1.24 PPG, Bahia 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atletico-MG win broke the near-deadlock. Atletico-MG (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Bahia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights