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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Standard Liege edge out Zulte Waregem 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Standard Liege beat Zulte Waregem 0-1 at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 1.18 xG and Standard Liege 1.31 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Zulte Waregem fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 0.96 / defence 1.21 against Standard Liege attack 0.83 / defence 0.94, drawn from 27/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 33% | Draw 28% | Standard Liege 39%, with Standard Liege to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 61%, Standard Liege 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zulte Waregem's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

Standard Liege's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Zulte Waregem arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with Standard Liege winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward. Standard Liege (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights