Zulte Waregem 0-2 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates St. Truiden at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zulte Waregem vs St. Truiden encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zulte Waregem host St. Truiden at Elindus Arena in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 April 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zulte Waregem stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Elindus Arena, Zulte Waregem have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, St. Truiden have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
St. Truiden away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. St. Truiden are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Zulte Waregem have won 1, St. Truiden 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2021, ended 3–1 with Zulte Waregem winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Zulte Waregem in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
St. Truiden in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zulte Waregem 62% versus St. Truiden 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zulte Waregem 66% | St. Truiden 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 1.01 xG and St. Truiden 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 0.957 / defence 1.163 | St. Truiden attack 0.695 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.139 / away 1.314. Data: 32 Zulte Waregem games / 32 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 34% | Draw 30% | St. Truiden 36%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | St. Truiden 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, St. Truiden are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St. Truiden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Zulte Waregem 50% | St. Truiden 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 34% | Draw 30% | St. Truiden 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Zulte Waregem 1.01 / St. Truiden 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 0.957 / def 1.163 | St. Truiden attack 0.695 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.139 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
1.06
St. Truiden xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zulte Waregem vs St. Truiden kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs St. Truiden kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Elindus Arena.
What was the final score in Zulte Waregem vs St. Truiden?
Zulte Waregem 0 - 2 St. Truiden.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs St. Truiden part of?
Zulte Waregem vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 34% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Zulte Waregem and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will Zulte Waregem vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and St. Truiden?
Record (1 meetings): Zulte Waregem 1W | Draws 0 | St. Truiden 0W.
What form are Zulte Waregem and St. Truiden in?
Zulte Waregem (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. St. Truiden (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Zulte Waregem's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against St. Truiden's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. The same calculation in reverse, St. Truiden's attack versus Zulte Waregem's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
34%
2.97
30%
3.32
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
2.08
1.06
St. Truiden xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
12%
8.59
13%
7.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 13.3 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 1.06 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs St. Truiden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zulte Waregem come into this having played 32 games, going 8W 8D 16L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, St. Truiden sit at 1.41 PPG from 32 outings (13W 6D 13L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-W across their last five.
St. Truiden carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Zulte Waregem — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Zulte Waregem's home form reads 5W 4D 7L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.19 PPG return.
Away from home, St. Truiden have taken 1.50 points per game from 16 outings (7W 3D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.16 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 32 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Current Season
St. Truiden
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zulte Waregem and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 8W 8D 16L in their last 32 games (1.00 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 13W 6D 13L in their last 32 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zulte Waregem at home or St. Truiden away?
St. Truiden's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zulte Waregem at home: 1.19 PPG; St. Truiden away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
St. Truiden go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Sep 2022, when St. Truiden won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zulte Waregem's record when hosting St. Truiden specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Zulte Waregem
0
Draws
5
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and St. Truiden?
From 6 meetings on record, Zulte Waregem have won 1, St. Truiden have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when St. Truiden 3-2 Zulte Waregem.
Who has won more matches between Zulte Waregem and St. Truiden?
St. Truiden have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zulte Waregem 62%, St. Truiden 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Zulte Waregem) and 31% (St. Truiden).
On the defensive side: St. Truiden in 44%; St. Truiden in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zulte Waregem play St. Truiden?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Zulte Waregem's recent matches and 38% of St. Truiden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zulte Waregem vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 69% of Zulte Waregem's recent games and 31% of St. Truiden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zulte Waregem and St. Truiden tend to score early?
Zulte Waregem have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
St. Truiden cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Zulte Waregem.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden beat Zulte Waregem 0-2 at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 33, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 1.01 xG and St. Truiden 1.06 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Zulte Waregem fell 1.0 short of their projected output. St. Truiden outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 0.96 / defence 1.16 against St. Truiden attack 0.69 / defence 0.93, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 34% | Draw 30% | St. Truiden 36%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 66%, St. Truiden 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
St. Truiden's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, St. Truiden arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward. St. Truiden (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.