OH Leuven 0-1 Antwerp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antwerp at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this OH Leuven vs Antwerp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Power at Den Dreef Stadion plays host to OH Leuven versus Antwerp in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Saturday 2 April 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
OH Leuven have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion, OH Leuven have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Antwerp (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Antwerp's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for OH Leuven, 1.60 for Antwerp — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
OH Leuven goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Antwerp goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — OH Leuven 72% and Antwerp 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OH Leuven 62% | Antwerp 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OH Leuven 1.37 xG and Antwerp 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OH Leuven attack 1.104 / defence 1.222 | Antwerp attack 0.845 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.144 / away 1.337. Data: 32 OH Leuven games / 32 Antwerp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OH Leuven 37% | Draw 26% | Antwerp 37%. Fair-value odds: OH Leuven 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Antwerp 2.70. The draw (26%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 26% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: OH Leuven 60% | Antwerp 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OH Leuven vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: King Power at Den Dreef Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OH Leuven 37% | Draw 26% | Antwerp 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG OH Leuven 1.37 / Antwerp 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: OH Leuven attack 1.104 / def 1.222 | Antwerp attack 0.845 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.144 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: Draw (26%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
OH Leuven xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Antwerp xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OH Leuven vs Antwerp kick off?
OH Leuven vs Antwerp kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What was the final score in OH Leuven vs Antwerp?
OH Leuven 0 - 1 Antwerp.
Where is OH Leuven vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What competition is OH Leuven vs Antwerp part of?
OH Leuven vs Antwerp is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win OH Leuven vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives OH Leuven a 37% chance of winning, Antwerp a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in OH Leuven vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both OH Leuven and Antwerp will score (BTTS).
Will OH Leuven vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Antwerp?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are OH Leuven and Antwerp in?
OH Leuven (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Antwerp (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from OH Leuven's attack rating (1.10) and Antwerp's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Antwerp's attack (0.84x) against OH Leuven's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
37%
2.71
26%
3.91
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
OH Leuven xG
Total xG
2.75
1.38
Antwerp xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
9%
10.75
10%
10.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.1 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OH Leuven vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are OH Leuven and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for OH Leuven and 1.38 for Antwerp, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for OH Leuven vs Antwerp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
OH Leuven's recent record stands at 10W 11D 11L from 32 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five.
Antwerp, meanwhile, have gone 18W 5D 9L across 32 games — 1.84 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Antwerp by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over OH Leuven heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, OH Leuven have managed 7W 4D 5L from 16 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Antwerp's away record stands at 9W 2D 5L across 16 trips, a 1.81 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
OH Leuven are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.66 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: OH Leuven have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Last 32 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OH Leuven
Current Season
Antwerp
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OH Leuven and Antwerp in coming into this match?
OH Leuven have gone 10W 11D 11L in their last 32 games (1.28 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 18W 5D 9L in their last 32 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OH Leuven at home or Antwerp away?
Antwerp's away record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OH Leuven at home: 1.56 PPG; Antwerp away: 1.81 PPG.
Have OH Leuven or Antwerp been keeping clean sheets recently?
OH Leuven have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Antwerp in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: OH Leuven won 3-0 on 15 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, OH Leuven have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Antwerp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
OH Leuven
4
Draws
4
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Antwerp?
From 10 meetings on record, OH Leuven have won 2, Antwerp have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did OH Leuven and Antwerp last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when OH Leuven 3-0 Antwerp.
Who has won more matches between OH Leuven and Antwerp?
Antwerp have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 69% for OH Leuven, 62% for Antwerp — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (OH Leuven) and 50% (Antwerp). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Antwerp in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OH Leuven home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OH Leuven play Antwerp?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of OH Leuven's games and 62% of Antwerp's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is OH Leuven vs Antwerp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of OH Leuven's matches and 50% of Antwerp's.
Do OH Leuven and Antwerp tend to score early?
OH Leuven have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Antwerp in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Antwerp edge out OH Leuven 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antwerp beat OH Leuven 0-1 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion, Regular Season - 33, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OH Leuven 1.37 xG and Antwerp 1.38 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. OH Leuven fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OH Leuven attack 1.10 / defence 1.22 against Antwerp attack 0.84 / defence 1.08, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OH Leuven 37% | Draw 26% | Antwerp 37%, with OH Leuven to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Antwerp win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OH Leuven 62%, Antwerp 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OH Leuven's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Antwerp's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Antwerp arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.28. Form held, and they took the win. OH Leuven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward. Antwerp (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.