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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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St. Truiden cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Zulte Waregem.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

St. Truiden beat Zulte Waregem 0-2 at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 1.09 xG and St. Truiden 1.23 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Zulte Waregem fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 0.70 / defence 1.08 against St. Truiden attack 1.00 / defence 1.02, drawn from 4/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 30% | Draw 34% | St. Truiden 36%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 67%, St. Truiden 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zulte Waregem's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

St. Truiden's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Zulte Waregem arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.36. Form was overturned, with St. Truiden winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. St. Truiden (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights