Zulte Waregem 0-2 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours St. Truiden (36%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Zulte Waregem face St. Truiden.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zulte Waregem host St. Truiden at Elindus Arena in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 August 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zulte Waregem stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Zulte Waregem have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Elindus Arena, Zulte Waregem have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Zulte Waregem are significantly better at Elindus Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, St. Truiden have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. St. Truiden have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
St. Truiden away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. St. Truiden are 0.60 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Zulte Waregem have won 1, St. Truiden 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Dec 2022, ended 0–2 with St. Truiden winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Zulte Waregem in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
St. Truiden in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zulte Waregem 67% and St. Truiden 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Zulte Waregem 67% | St. Truiden 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 1.09 xG and St. Truiden 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 0.702 / defence 1.080 | St. Truiden attack 0.998 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.139. Zulte Waregem's attack strength of 0.702 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 4 Zulte Waregem games / 34 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 30% | Draw 34% | St. Truiden 36%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 3.33 | Draw 2.94 | St. Truiden 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, St. Truiden are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St. Truiden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Zulte Waregem 70% | St. Truiden 90% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Aug 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 30% | Draw 34% | St. Truiden 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 50% | xG Zulte Waregem 1.09 / St. Truiden 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 0.702 / def 1.080 | St. Truiden attack 0.998 / def 1.021 | league avg home 1.519 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
1.23
St. Truiden xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zulte Waregem vs St. Truiden kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs St. Truiden kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 23 August 2025 at Elindus Arena.
What was the final score in Zulte Waregem vs St. Truiden?
Zulte Waregem 0 - 2 St. Truiden.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs St. Truiden part of?
Zulte Waregem vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 30% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 36% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Zulte Waregem and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will Zulte Waregem vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and St. Truiden?
Record (4 meetings): Zulte Waregem 1W | Draws 0 | St. Truiden 3W.
What form are Zulte Waregem and St. Truiden in?
Zulte Waregem (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. St. Truiden (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Zulte Waregem's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against St. Truiden's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. The same calculation in reverse, St. Truiden's attack versus Zulte Waregem's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
30%
3.38
34%
2.93
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
2.32
1.23
St. Truiden xG
3.38
30%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
9%
11.54
12%
8.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 12.1 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 1.23 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs St. Truiden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zulte Waregem come into this having played 33 games, going 19W 7D 7L for 1.94 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, St. Truiden sit at 1.36 PPG from 33 outings (12W 9D 12L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for St. Truiden, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Zulte Waregem carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of St. Truiden — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Zulte Waregem's home form reads 11W 2D 3L across 16 games on their own ground, a 2.19 PPG return.
Away from home, St. Truiden have taken 0.81 points per game from 16 outings (3W 4D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of St. Truiden's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zulte Waregem come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.52 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; St. Truiden in 73%.
Last 33 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Early Season
St. Truiden
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zulte Waregem and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 19W 7D 7L in their last 33 games (1.94 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 12W 9D 12L in their last 33 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zulte Waregem at home or St. Truiden away?
Zulte Waregem's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zulte Waregem at home: 2.19 PPG; St. Truiden away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
St. Truiden go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Sep 2022, when St. Truiden won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zulte Waregem's record when hosting St. Truiden specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Zulte Waregem
0
Draws
5
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and St. Truiden?
From 6 meetings on record, Zulte Waregem have won 1, St. Truiden have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when St. Truiden 3-2 Zulte Waregem.
Who has won more matches between Zulte Waregem and St. Truiden?
St. Truiden have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Zulte Waregem at 69%, St. Truiden at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Zulte Waregem and 69% for St. Truiden. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zulte Waregem play St. Truiden?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Zulte Waregem's games and 75% of St. Truiden's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zulte Waregem vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Zulte Waregem's matches and 69% of St. Truiden's.
Do Zulte Waregem and St. Truiden tend to score early?
Zulte Waregem have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
St. Truiden cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Zulte Waregem.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden beat Zulte Waregem 0-2 at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 1.09 xG and St. Truiden 1.23 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Zulte Waregem fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 0.70 / defence 1.08 against St. Truiden attack 1.00 / defence 1.02, drawn from 4/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 30% | Draw 34% | St. Truiden 36%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 67%, St. Truiden 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
St. Truiden's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Zulte Waregem arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.36. Form was overturned, with St. Truiden winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. St. Truiden (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.