Zulte Waregem vs Kortrijk Prediction & Preview
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Poisson model rates Zulte Waregem at 59% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Zulte Waregem face Kortrijk.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kortrijk make the trip to Elindus Arena to face Zulte Waregem in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 26). The match kicks off on Saturday 20 March 2027 at 16:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Zulte Waregem have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Zulte Waregem at home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Zulte Waregem are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Kortrijk's record over their last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L (0.40 PPG). Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Kortrijk's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across their last 10 road games (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Zulte Waregem, 0.40 for Kortrijk — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Zulte Waregem edge it 2 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 6 Sep 2026, ended Zulte Waregem 2–0 Kortrijk — a Zulte Waregem win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Zulte Waregem goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 42 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Kortrijk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 42 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zulte Waregem 55% versus Kortrijk 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zulte Waregem 57% | Kortrijk 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 1.76 xG and Kortrijk 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 0.936 / defence 1.135 | Kortrijk attack 0.547 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.765 / away 1.356. Kortrijk's attack rating of 0.547 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.84. Data: built from Zulte Waregem's last 41 games and Kortrijk's last 11.
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 59% | Draw 23% | Kortrijk 18%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 1.69 | Draw 4.31 | Kortrijk 5.67. The model has a clear lean to Zulte Waregem (59%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Zulte Waregem as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Zulte Waregem 40% (last 10 home games) | Kortrijk 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs Kortrijk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 26 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 March 2027 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 59% | Draw 23% | Kortrijk 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Zulte Waregem 1.76 / Kortrijk 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 0.936 / def 1.135 | Kortrijk attack 0.547 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.765 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: Zulte Waregem (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Kortrijk xG
47%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Zulte Waregem vs Kortrijk FAQs
What time does Zulte Waregem vs Kortrijk kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs Kortrijk is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 20 March 2027 at Elindus Arena.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs Kortrijk part of?
Zulte Waregem vs Kortrijk is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 26) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 59% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Zulte Waregem the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Zulte Waregem and Kortrijk will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Zulte Waregem vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Zulte Waregem's attack rating (0.94) and Kortrijk's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kortrijk's attack (0.55x) against Zulte Waregem's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from Zulte Waregem's last 41 games and Kortrijk's last 11 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 2-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zulte Waregem Win
59%
1.69
23%
4.31
18%
5.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
2.60
0.84
Kortrijk xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
5.67
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
17%
5.82
Win to Nil
25%
3.92
3%
33.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 11.0 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.7 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Zulte Waregem vs Kortrijk Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 0.84 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs Kortrijk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Zulte Waregem's recent record stands at 15W 10D 17L from 42 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Kortrijk, meanwhile, have gone 21W 5D 16L across 42 games — 1.62 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Zulte Waregem against 1.62 for Kortrijk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Zulte Waregem have managed 10W 3D 7L from their last 20 home games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kortrijk's away record stands at 5W 4D 11L across their last 20 away games, a 0.95 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kortrijk's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zulte Waregem come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 1.43 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 42 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Blended
Kortrijk
Blended
Zulte Waregem (Home) vs Kortrijk (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Zulte Waregem
Blended
Kortrijk
Blended
❓ Zulte Waregem vs Kortrijk Form FAQs
What form are Zulte Waregem and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 15W 10D 17L in their last 42 games (1.31 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 21W 5D 16L in their last 42 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zulte Waregem at home or Kortrijk away?
Zulte Waregem's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zulte Waregem at home: 1.65 PPG; Kortrijk away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 5 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 6 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kortrijk won Kortrijk 5-0 Zulte Waregem on 19 Feb 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zulte Waregem have gone 0W 2D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Kortrijk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Zulte Waregem
2
Draws
1
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Zulte Waregem vs Kortrijk H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Kortrijk?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Zulte Waregem have won 2, Kortrijk have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and Kortrijk last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 September 2026: Kortrijk 0-2 Zulte Waregem.
Who has won more matches between Zulte Waregem and Kortrijk?
Zulte Waregem have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zulte Waregem 50%, Kortrijk 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Zulte Waregem) and 45% (Kortrijk).
On the defensive side: Kortrijk in 55%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Zulte Waregem vs Kortrijk Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Zulte Waregem and Kortrijk matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Zulte Waregem's recent matches and 40% of Kortrijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Zulte Waregem and Kortrijk matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Zulte Waregem's recent games and 45% of Kortrijk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zulte Waregem and Kortrijk matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Zulte Waregem's recent matches and 75% of Kortrijk's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.