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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Zulte Waregem defy the odds to beat Genk 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zulte Waregem beat Genk 2-1 at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 1.48 xG and Genk 1.50 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 1.04 / defence 1.22 against Genk attack 1.05 / defence 1.08, drawn from 20/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 37% | Draw 25% | Genk 38%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Zulte Waregem win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 59%, Genk 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zulte Waregem's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Genk's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Zulte Waregem 1.69 PPG, Genk 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zulte Waregem win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights