Zulte Waregem 2-1 Genk – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Genk at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zulte Waregem vs Genk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Zulte Waregem and Genk meet at Elindus Arena in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 January 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Zulte Waregem's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 1W 6D 3L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zulte Waregem's home record at Elindus Arena: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Zulte Waregem are significantly better at Elindus Arena than their overall form suggests.
Genk (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Genk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genk away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Zulte Waregem, 1.10 for Genk — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Zulte Waregem have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Genk in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Genk hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 5 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.2 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2025, ended 2–3 with Genk winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Genk have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 4.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Zulte Waregem goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Genk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zulte Waregem 65% and Genk 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zulte Waregem 59% | Genk 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 1.48 xG and Genk 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 1.041 / defence 1.217 | Genk attack 1.049 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.316 / away 1.173. Data: 20 Zulte Waregem games / 50 Genk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 37% | Draw 25% | Genk 38%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 2.70 | Draw 4.00 | Genk 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Genk are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Zulte Waregem 60% | Genk 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs Genk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jan 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 37% | Draw 25% | Genk 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Zulte Waregem 1.48 / Genk 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 1.041 / def 1.217 | Genk attack 1.049 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.316 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Genk (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Genk xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zulte Waregem vs Genk kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs Genk kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 17 January 2026 at Elindus Arena.
What was the final score in Zulte Waregem vs Genk?
Zulte Waregem 2 - 1 Genk.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs Genk being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs Genk part of?
Zulte Waregem vs Genk is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs Genk?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 37% chance of winning, Genk a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs Genk?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Zulte Waregem and Genk will score (BTTS).
Will Zulte Waregem vs Genk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Genk?
Record (5 meetings): Zulte Waregem 0W | Draws 0 | Genk 5W.
What form are Zulte Waregem and Genk in?
Zulte Waregem (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. Genk (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Zulte Waregem's attack at 1.04x the league average against Genk's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Genk's attack (1.05x) against Zulte Waregem's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 20/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
37%
2.70
25%
3.97
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
2.98
1.50
Genk xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
22%
4.47
23%
4.40
Win to Nil
8%
12.06
9%
11.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.6 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.3 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.4 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs Genk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and Genk expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 1.50 for Genk, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs Genk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Zulte Waregem come into this having played 49 games, going 23W 14D 12L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-L. The sample for Zulte Waregem is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Genk sit at 1.65 PPG from 49 outings (23W 12D 14L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Genk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.69 PPG for Zulte Waregem against 1.65 for Genk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Zulte Waregem's home form reads 14W 4D 5L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Genk have taken 1.52 points per game from 23 outings (9W 8D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zulte Waregem come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Genk are on 1.47 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Genk in 61%.
Last 49 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Blended
Genk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zulte Waregem and Genk in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 23W 14D 12L in their last 49 games (1.69 PPG), while Genk have gone 23W 12D 14L in their last 49 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zulte Waregem at home or Genk away?
Zulte Waregem's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zulte Waregem at home: 2.00 PPG; Genk away: 1.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Zulte Waregem have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Genk won 2-6 on 31 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zulte Waregem have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Genk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Zulte Waregem
0
Draws
5
Genk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Genk?
From 7 meetings on record, Zulte Waregem have won 2, Genk have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and Genk last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Zulte Waregem 2-1 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Zulte Waregem and Genk?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 65% for Zulte Waregem, 74% for Genk — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Zulte Waregem and 61% for Genk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / Genk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zulte Waregem play Genk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Zulte Waregem's games and 74% of Genk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zulte Waregem vs Genk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Zulte Waregem's matches and 61% of Genk's.
Do Zulte Waregem and Genk tend to score early?
Zulte Waregem have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Genk in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Zulte Waregem defy the odds to beat Genk 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zulte Waregem beat Genk 2-1 at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 1.48 xG and Genk 1.50 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 1.04 / defence 1.22 against Genk attack 1.05 / defence 1.08, drawn from 20/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 37% | Draw 25% | Genk 38%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Zulte Waregem win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 59%, Genk 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Genk's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zulte Waregem 1.69 PPG, Genk 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zulte Waregem win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.