Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zulte Waregem at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Zulte Waregem and Charleroi meet at Elindus Arena in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Zulte Waregem have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Zulte Waregem have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Zulte Waregem have posted 6W 1D 3L at Elindus Arena — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Elindus Arena this season.
Charleroi (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Charleroi have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Charleroi's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.40 for Zulte Waregem, 2.50 for Charleroi — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Zulte Waregem, 3 for Charleroi and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Mar 2026, ended 1–0 with Zulte Waregem winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Zulte Waregem — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Charleroi — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zulte Waregem 60% versus Charleroi 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zulte Waregem 55% | Charleroi 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 1.42 xG and Charleroi 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 1.108 / defence 0.824 | Charleroi attack 1.060 / defence 0.791. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.397. Charleroi's defence strength of 0.791 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 34 Zulte Waregem games / 34 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 42% | Draw 26% | Charleroi 32%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Charleroi 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zulte Waregem are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zulte Waregem if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. This conflicts with form data: Zulte Waregem 40% | Charleroi 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Sep 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 42% | Draw 26% | Charleroi 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Zulte Waregem 1.42 / Charleroi 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 1.108 / def 0.824 | Charleroi attack 1.060 / def 0.791 | league avg home 1.619 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: Zulte Waregem (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Charleroi xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi is scheduled to kick off at 16:30 on Sunday 13 September 2026 at Elindus Arena.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi part of?
Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 42% chance of winning, Charleroi a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Zulte Waregem the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Zulte Waregem and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Charleroi?
Record (6 meetings): Zulte Waregem 2W | Draws 1 | Charleroi 3W.
What form are Zulte Waregem and Charleroi in?
Zulte Waregem (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Charleroi (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Zulte Waregem's attack at 1.11x the league average against Charleroi's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Charleroi's attack (1.06x) against Zulte Waregem's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zulte Waregem Win
42%
2.40
26%
3.84
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
2.64
1.22
Charleroi xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
24%
4.13
Win to Nil
12%
8.13
8%
12.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.4 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 1.22 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 40 outings, Zulte Waregem have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 15W 11D 14L record — W-W-D-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Charleroi's form line: 18W 6D 16L from 40 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Charleroi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Zulte Waregem against 1.50 for Charleroi. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Zulte Waregem have posted 1.70 PPG from 20 outings (10W 4D 6L).
On the road, Charleroi have gone 10W 2D 8L from 20 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.38 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Early Season
Charleroi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zulte Waregem and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 15W 11D 14L in their last 40 games (1.40 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 18W 6D 16L in their last 40 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zulte Waregem at home or Charleroi away?
Zulte Waregem's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zulte Waregem at home: 1.70 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Zulte Waregem or Charleroi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zulte Waregem have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Charleroi in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Zulte Waregem have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Charleroi won 3-0 on 10 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zulte Waregem have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Charleroi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Zulte Waregem
1
Draws
3
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Charleroi?
From 6 meetings on record, Zulte Waregem have won 2, Charleroi have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Zulte Waregem 1-0 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Zulte Waregem and Charleroi?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zulte Waregem 50%, Charleroi 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Zulte Waregem) and 40% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: Charleroi in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zulte Waregem play Charleroi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Zulte Waregem's recent matches and 45% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Zulte Waregem's recent games and 40% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zulte Waregem and Charleroi tend to score early?
Zulte Waregem have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.