Union St. Gilloise 2-1 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
St. Truiden make the trip to Stade Joseph Mariën to face Union St. Gilloise in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Sunday 2 April 2023 at 18:15 UTC.
Form
Union St. Gilloise (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Union St. Gilloise's home record at Stade Joseph Mariën: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Joseph Mariën.
St. Truiden's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
St. Truiden's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Union St. Gilloise's favour (2.00 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Union St. Gilloise 0W, St. Truiden 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jul 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Union St. Gilloise — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
St. Truiden — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 56% versus St. Truiden 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 61% | St. Truiden 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.59 xG and St. Truiden 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.159 / defence 0.885 | St. Truiden attack 0.779 / defence 0.870. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.337. Data: 64 Union St. Gilloise games / 64 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 53% | Draw 25% | St. Truiden 22%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | St. Truiden 4.55. Union St. Gilloise hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Union St. Gilloise 50% | St. Truiden 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Apr 2023, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 53% | Draw 25% | St. Truiden 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.59 / St. Truiden 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.159 / def 0.885 | St. Truiden attack 0.779 / def 0.870 | league avg home 1.573 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
0.92
St. Truiden xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 2 April 2023 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden?
Union St. Gilloise 2 - 1 St. Truiden.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 53% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden?
Record (1 meetings): Union St. Gilloise 0W | Draws 1 | St. Truiden 0W.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. St. Truiden (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Union St. Gilloise's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against St. Truiden's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. Flip it around — St. Truiden's attack (0.78x) against Union St. Gilloise's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
53%
1.89
25%
3.97
22%
4.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
2.51
0.92
St. Truiden xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
4.56
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
20%
4.88
Win to Nil
21%
4.75
4%
22.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 11.9 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 0.92 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 64 outings, Union St. Gilloise have picked up 2.14 PPG on a 42W 11D 11L record — L-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
St. Truiden's form line: 25W 15D 24L from 64 games, 1.41 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W.
Put side by side, Union St. Gilloise are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against St. Truiden.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Union St. Gilloise have posted 2.03 PPG from 32 outings (20W 5D 7L).
On the road, St. Truiden have gone 13W 8D 11L from 32 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 2.05 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.12 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Current Season
St. Truiden
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 42W 11D 11L in their last 64 games (2.14 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 25W 15D 24L in their last 64 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or St. Truiden away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.03 PPG; St. Truiden away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or St. Truiden been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, St. Truiden in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union St. Gilloise won 0-4 on 8 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union St. Gilloise have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against St. Truiden — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Union St. Gilloise
2
Draws
1
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden?
From 10 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 7, St. Truiden have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when St. Truiden 2-1 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 53%, St. Truiden 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Union St. Gilloise) and 31% (St. Truiden).
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; St. Truiden in 41%; St. Truiden in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play St. Truiden?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 38% of St. Truiden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Union St. Gilloise's recent games and 31% of St. Truiden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union St. Gilloise edge out St. Truiden 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat St. Truiden 2-1 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Regular Season - 31, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.59 xG and St. Truiden 0.92 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.16 / defence 0.89 against St. Truiden attack 0.78 / defence 0.87, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 53% | Draw 25% | St. Truiden 22%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 61%, St. Truiden 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
St. Truiden's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.41. That form edge translated into the three points. St. Truiden (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.