AS Eupen 0-1 Anderlecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Anderlecht (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as AS Eupen face Anderlecht.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AS Eupen host Anderlecht at Stadion am Kehrweg in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 2 April 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, AS Eupen stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Stadion am Kehrweg, AS Eupen have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — AS Eupen are significantly better at Stadion am Kehrweg than their overall form suggests.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Anderlecht have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Anderlecht away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Anderlecht are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, AS Eupen have won 0, Anderlecht 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2022, ended 2–4 with Anderlecht winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
AS Eupen trading profile (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Anderlecht trading profile (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Eupen 58% versus Anderlecht 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Eupen 58% | Anderlecht 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Eupen 1.13 xG and Anderlecht 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Eupen attack 1.021 / defence 1.293 | Anderlecht attack 1.010 / defence 0.694. League average goals — home 1.598 / away 1.326. Anderlecht's defence strength of 0.694 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 64 AS Eupen games / 63 Anderlecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Eupen 25% | Draw 24% | Anderlecht 51%. Fair-value odds: AS Eupen 4.00 | Draw 4.17 | Anderlecht 1.96. Anderlecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Anderlecht are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Anderlecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: AS Eupen 70% | Anderlecht 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Eupen vs Anderlecht | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadion am Kehrweg • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Eupen 25% | Draw 24% | Anderlecht 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG AS Eupen 1.13 / Anderlecht 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: AS Eupen attack 1.021 / def 1.293 | Anderlecht attack 1.010 / def 0.694 | league avg home 1.598 / away 1.326 • Poisson stance: Anderlecht (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
AS Eupen xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Anderlecht xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Eupen vs Anderlecht kick off?
AS Eupen vs Anderlecht kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 2 April 2023 at Stadion am Kehrweg.
What was the final score in AS Eupen vs Anderlecht?
AS Eupen 0 - 1 Anderlecht.
Where is AS Eupen vs Anderlecht being played?
The match is being played at Stadion am Kehrweg.
What competition is AS Eupen vs Anderlecht part of?
AS Eupen vs Anderlecht is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win AS Eupen vs Anderlecht?
Our statistical model gives AS Eupen a 25% chance of winning, Anderlecht a 51% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Anderlecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Eupen vs Anderlecht?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both AS Eupen and Anderlecht will score (BTTS).
Will AS Eupen vs Anderlecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Eupen and Anderlecht?
Record (3 meetings): AS Eupen 0W | Draws 1 | Anderlecht 2W.
What form are AS Eupen and Anderlecht in?
AS Eupen (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Anderlecht (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
AS Eupen's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Anderlecht's defensive record (0.69x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. The same calculation in reverse, Anderlecht's attack versus AS Eupen's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Anderlecht Win
25%
4.05
24%
4.16
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
AS Eupen xG
Total xG
2.87
1.73
Anderlecht xG
4.05
25%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
18%
5.65
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
4%
22.86
16%
6.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 9.9 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.3 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Eupen vs Anderlecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are AS Eupen and Anderlecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for AS Eupen and 1.73 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Eupen vs Anderlecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AS Eupen's recent record stands at 15W 14D 35L from 64 games, a 0.92 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-L in the last five.
Anderlecht, meanwhile, have gone 30W 17D 17L across 64 games — 1.67 PPG, with D-D-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Anderlecht by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over AS Eupen heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, AS Eupen have managed 8W 7D 16L from 31 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Anderlecht's away record stands at 14W 8D 9L across 31 trips, a 1.61 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Anderlecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AS Eupen are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Anderlecht are on 1.83 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Eupen
Current Season
Anderlecht
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Eupen and Anderlecht in coming into this match?
AS Eupen have gone 15W 14D 35L in their last 64 games (0.92 PPG), while Anderlecht have gone 30W 17D 17L in their last 64 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Eupen at home or Anderlecht away?
Anderlecht's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Eupen at home: 1.00 PPG; Anderlecht away: 1.61 PPG.
Have AS Eupen or Anderlecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Eupen have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Anderlecht in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Anderlecht go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Feb 2022, when Anderlecht won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AS Eupen's record when hosting Anderlecht specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
AS Eupen
1
Draws
5
Anderlecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Eupen and Anderlecht?
From 6 meetings on record, AS Eupen have won 0, Anderlecht have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AS Eupen and Anderlecht last play each other?
They last met on 3 March 2024, when Anderlecht 1-0 AS Eupen.
Who has won more matches between AS Eupen and Anderlecht?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Eupen 61%, Anderlecht 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (AS Eupen) and 52% (Anderlecht).
On the defensive side: Anderlecht in 39%; AS Eupen have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Eupen home games / Anderlecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Eupen play Anderlecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of AS Eupen's recent matches and 45% of Anderlecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Eupen vs Anderlecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of AS Eupen's recent games and 52% of Anderlecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Eupen and Anderlecht tend to score early?
AS Eupen have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Anderlecht in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Anderlecht edge out AS Eupen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Anderlecht beat AS Eupen 0-1 at Stadion am Kehrweg, Regular Season - 31, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Eupen 1.13 xG and Anderlecht 1.73 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AS Eupen fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Eupen attack 1.02 / defence 1.29 against Anderlecht attack 1.01 / defence 0.69, drawn from 64/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Eupen 25% | Draw 24% | Anderlecht 51%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Eupen 58%, Anderlecht 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Eupen's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Anderlecht's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Anderlecht arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.92. Form held, and they took the win. AS Eupen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward. Anderlecht (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.