Union St. Gilloise 1-0 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Union St. Gilloise (48%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Union St. Gilloise face St. Truiden.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
St. Truiden make the trip to Stade Joseph Marien to face Union St. Gilloise in Jupiler Pro League (Championship Group - 31). The match kicks off on Saturday 4 April 2026 at 20:45 UK time.
Form
Union St. Gilloise (all games): 7W 3D 0L across their last 10 — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Union St. Gilloise's home record over their last 10 home games: 9W 1D 0L (2.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
St. Truiden's record over their last 10 games: 6W 0D 4L (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
St. Truiden's form when playing away from home: 6W 0D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Union St. Gilloise's favour (2.40 vs 1.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Union St. Gilloise have had the better of this match-up — 6 wins, with St. Truiden managing 0 and 1 draw.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Mar 2026, ended Union St. Gilloise 3–1 St. Truiden — a Union St. Gilloise win.
The head-to-head data gives Union St. Gilloise an edge — 6 wins from 7 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading & In-Play
Union St. Gilloise — key trading statistics (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 55% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
St. Truiden — key trading statistics (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 46% versus St. Truiden 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 44% | St. Truiden 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.40 xG and St. Truiden 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.196 / defence 0.608 | St. Truiden attack 1.149 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.321. Union St. Gilloise have a tight defence (rating 0.608), which is pulling St. Truiden's projected output down. Data: built from Union St. Gilloise's last 60 games and St. Truiden's last 60.
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 48% | Draw 27% | St. Truiden 25%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 2.09 | Draw 3.67 | St. Truiden 4.03. Union St. Gilloise hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Union St. Gilloise 40% (last 10 home games) | St. Truiden 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Championship Group - 31 | Venue: Stade Joseph Marien • Kick-off: Saturday 4 April 2026 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 48% | Draw 27% | St. Truiden 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.40 / St. Truiden 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.196 / def 0.608 | St. Truiden attack 1.149 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
0.92
St. Truiden xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden FAQs
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Saturday 4 April 2026 at Stade Joseph Marien.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden?
Union St. Gilloise 1 - 0 St. Truiden.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Marien.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (Championship Group - 31) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 48% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Union St. Gilloise's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against St. Truiden's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — St. Truiden's attack (1.15x) against Union St. Gilloise's defence (0.61x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from Union St. Gilloise's last 60 games and St. Truiden's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
48%
2.09
27%
3.67
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
2.32
0.92
St. Truiden xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
19%
5.25
6%
16.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.7 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 0.92 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 66 outings, Union St. Gilloise have picked up 2.15 PPG on a 41W 19D 6L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
St. Truiden's form line: 28W 14D 24L from 66 games, 1.48 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L.
Put side by side, Union St. Gilloise are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against St. Truiden.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Union St. Gilloise have posted 2.52 PPG from their last 33 home games (26W 5D 2L).
On the road, St. Truiden have gone 11W 6D 16L from their last 33 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 0.61 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.47 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: St. Truiden in 65%.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Current Season
St. Truiden
Current Season
Union St. Gilloise (Home) vs St. Truiden (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Union St. Gilloise
Current Season
St. Truiden
Current Season
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden Form FAQs
What form are Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 41W 19D 6L in their last 66 games (2.15 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 28W 14D 24L in their last 66 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or St. Truiden away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.52 PPG; St. Truiden away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or St. Truiden been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, St. Truiden in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden, the earliest from April 2023. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 2 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union St. Gilloise won St. Truiden 0-4 Union St. Gilloise on 8 Oct 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union St. Gilloise have gone 5W 0D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against St. Truiden — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Union St. Gilloise
1
Draws
1
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Union St. Gilloise have won 8, St. Truiden have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 September 2026: St. Truiden 0-3 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 39%, St. Truiden 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Union St. Gilloise) and 61% (St. Truiden). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 67% of St. Truiden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Union St. Gilloise's matches and 61% of St. Truiden's.
Do Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 76% of St. Truiden's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union St. Gilloise edge out St. Truiden 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat St. Truiden 1-0 at Stade Joseph Marien, Championship Group - 31, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.40 xG and St. Truiden 0.92 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. St. Truiden landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.20 / defence 0.61 against St. Truiden attack 1.15 / defence 0.88, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 48% | Draw 27% | St. Truiden 25%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 44%, St. Truiden 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
St. Truiden's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.48. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward. St. Truiden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.