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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Union St. Gilloise edge out RAAL La Louvière 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union St. Gilloise beat RAAL La Louvière 2-1 at Stade Joseph Marien, Regular Season - 24, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.75 xG and RAAL La Louvière 0.60 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.18 / defence 0.50 against RAAL La Louvière attack 0.94 / defence 1.18, drawn from 53/23 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 65% | Draw 23% | RAAL La Louvière 12%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 65%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 46%, RAAL La Louvière 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.

RAAL La Louvière's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.65. That form edge translated into the three points. RAAL La Louvière (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights