Union St. Gilloise 3-0 KV Mechelen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise at 59% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union St. Gilloise vs KV Mechelen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Union St. Gilloise host KV Mechelen at Stade Joseph Marien in Jupiler Pro League (Championship Group - 37). Kick-off is Sunday 10 May 2026 at 18:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Union St. Gilloise — last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters, Union St. Gilloise have posted 9W 1D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.30 — Union St. Gilloise are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, KV Mechelen have recorded 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, KV Mechelen have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Union St. Gilloise have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 9 H2H matches we hold have produced 4 wins for Union St. Gilloise, 3 for KV Mechelen and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 Apr 2026, ended Union St. Gilloise 1–0 KV Mechelen — a Union St. Gilloise win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Union St. Gilloise in-play and half-time data (last 76 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
KV Mechelen in-play and half-time data (last 76 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 46% versus KV Mechelen 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 45% | KV Mechelen 49%). Note also that KV Mechelen surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Union St. Gilloise recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 57% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.79 xG and KV Mechelen 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.174 / defence 0.666 | KV Mechelen attack 0.981 / defence 1.146. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.321. Union St. Gilloise have a tight defence (rating 0.666), which is pulling KV Mechelen's projected output down. Data: built from Union St. Gilloise's last 60 games and KV Mechelen's last 60.
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 59% | Draw 23% | KV Mechelen 18%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 1.68 | Draw 4.37 | KV Mechelen 5.64. The model has a clear lean to Union St. Gilloise (59%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union St. Gilloise are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Union St. Gilloise 40% (last 10 home games) | KV Mechelen 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs KV Mechelen | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Championship Group - 37 | Venue: Stade Joseph Marien • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 59% | Draw 23% | KV Mechelen 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.79 / KV Mechelen 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.174 / def 0.666 | KV Mechelen attack 0.981 / def 1.146 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
0.86
KV Mechelen xG
48%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs KV Mechelen FAQs
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs KV Mechelen kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs KV Mechelen kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Stade Joseph Marien.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs KV Mechelen?
Union St. Gilloise 3 - 0 KV Mechelen.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs KV Mechelen being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Marien.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs KV Mechelen part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs KV Mechelen is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (Championship Group - 37) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs KV Mechelen?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 59% chance of winning, KV Mechelen a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs KV Mechelen?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and KV Mechelen will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs KV Mechelen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Union St. Gilloise's attack at 1.17x the league average against KV Mechelen's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, KV Mechelen's attack versus Union St. Gilloise's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Union St. Gilloise's last 60 games and KV Mechelen's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
59%
1.68
23%
4.37
18%
5.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
2.66
0.86
KV Mechelen xG
1.68
59%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
5.64
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
17%
6.01
Win to Nil
25%
3.99
3%
33.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 10.9 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.7 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs KV Mechelen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs KV Mechelen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and KV Mechelen expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 0.86 for KV Mechelen, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs KV Mechelen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 76 outings, Union St. Gilloise have picked up 2.13 PPG on a 47W 21D 8L record — W-W-D-W-L across the most recent five.
KV Mechelen's form line: 25W 24D 27L from 76 games, 1.30 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W.
Put side by side, Union St. Gilloise are the form team by 0.83 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against KV Mechelen.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Union St. Gilloise have posted 2.51 PPG from their last 37 home games (29W 6D 2L).
On the road, KV Mechelen have gone 11W 10D 16L from their last 37 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.64 conceded per game recently; KV Mechelen are on 1.39 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KV Mechelen in 63%.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Current Season
KV Mechelen
Current Season
Union St. Gilloise (Home) vs KV Mechelen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Union St. Gilloise
Current Season
KV Mechelen
Current Season
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs KV Mechelen Form FAQs
What form are Union St. Gilloise and KV Mechelen in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 47W 21D 8L in their last 76 games (2.13 PPG), while KV Mechelen have gone 25W 24D 27L in their last 76 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or KV Mechelen away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.51 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.51 PPG; KV Mechelen away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or KV Mechelen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, KV Mechelen in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was on 10 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Union St. Gilloise have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 19 Aug 2023, when KV Mechelen won KV Mechelen 4-0 Union St. Gilloise.
Union St. Gilloise's record when hosting KV Mechelen specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Union St. Gilloise
2
Draws
3
KV Mechelen
Recent Meetings
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs KV Mechelen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and KV Mechelen?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Union St. Gilloise have won 5, KV Mechelen have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and KV Mechelen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 May 2026: Union St. Gilloise 3-0 KV Mechelen.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and KV Mechelen?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 51% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
KV Mechelen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 38%, KV Mechelen 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Union St. Gilloise) and 49% (KV Mechelen).
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / KV Mechelen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs KV Mechelen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Union St. Gilloise and KV Mechelen matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 60% of KV Mechelen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Union St. Gilloise and KV Mechelen matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Union St. Gilloise's recent games and 49% of KV Mechelen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union St. Gilloise and KV Mechelen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 81% of KV Mechelen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Union St. Gilloise run riot with a 3-0 hammering of KV Mechelen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat KV Mechelen 3-0 at Stade Joseph Marien, Championship Group - 37, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.79 xG and KV Mechelen 0.86 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. KV Mechelen landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.17 / defence 0.67 against KV Mechelen attack 0.98 / defence 1.15, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 59% | Draw 23% | KV Mechelen 18%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 45%, KV Mechelen 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and duly kept one.
KV Mechelen's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.30. That form edge translated into the three points. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.95 average — above their attacking norm. KV Mechelen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.