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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Union St. Gilloise edge out KV Mechelen 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union St. Gilloise beat KV Mechelen 1-0 at Stade Joseph Marien, Regular Season - 21, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.60 xG and KV Mechelen 0.81 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. KV Mechelen landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.30 / defence 0.66 against KV Mechelen attack 1.05 / defence 0.94, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 56% | Draw 26% | KV Mechelen 18%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 45%, KV Mechelen 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.

KV Mechelen's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.35. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward. KV Mechelen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights