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Union St. Gilloise and Gent share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade Joseph Marien, Regular Season - 17, as Union St. Gilloise and Gent drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 2.35 xG and Gent 0.62 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.43 / defence 0.64 against Gent attack 0.93 / defence 1.28, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 76% | Draw 16% | Gent 8%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 76%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 48%, Gent 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Gent's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.19 scoring average — below par going forward. Gent (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights