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Union St. Gilloise cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Gent.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union St. Gilloise beat Gent 3-1 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Championship Round - 10, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.45 xG and Gent 0.91 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.18 / defence 0.88 against Gent attack 0.92 / defence 0.84, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 48% | Draw 31% | Gent 21%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 58%, Gent 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Gent's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.51. That form edge translated into the three points. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.05 average — above their attacking norm. Gent (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights