Union St. Gilloise 3-1 Gent – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Union St. Gilloise (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Union St. Gilloise face Gent.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Union St. Gilloise and Gent meet at Stade Joseph Mariën in Jupiler Pro League, Championship Round - 10. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 25 May 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Union St. Gilloise's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Stade Joseph Mariën, Union St. Gilloise have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Joseph Mariën.
Gent have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 1W 0D 9L. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 3.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Gent's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Union St. Gilloise's 2.50 PPG return is 2.20 points per game ahead of Gent's 0.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Union St. Gilloise, 0 for Gent and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2025, ended 3–0 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Union St. Gilloise — key trading statistics (79 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Gent — key trading statistics (79 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 54% versus Gent 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 58% | Gent 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.45 xG and Gent 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.175 / defence 0.883 | Gent attack 0.923 / defence 0.840. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.113. Data: 60 Union St. Gilloise games / 60 Gent games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 48% | Draw 31% | Gent 21%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 2.08 | Draw 3.23 | Gent 4.76. Union St. Gilloise hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union St. Gilloise are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Union St. Gilloise 40% | Gent 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Gent | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Championship Round - 10 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Sunday 25 May 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 48% | Draw 31% | Gent 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.45 / Gent 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.175 / def 0.883 | Gent attack 0.923 / def 0.840 | league avg home 1.473 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Gent xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Gent kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Gent kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 25 May 2025 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Gent?
Union St. Gilloise 3 - 1 Gent.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Gent being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Gent part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Gent is a Championship Round - 10 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Gent?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 48% chance of winning, Gent a 21% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Gent?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Gent will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Gent have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Gent?
Record (5 meetings): Union St. Gilloise 2W | Draws 3 | Gent 0W.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Gent in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Gent (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 3.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Union St. Gilloise's attack at 1.18x the league average against Gent's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gent's attack (0.92x) against Union St. Gilloise's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
48%
2.10
31%
3.24
21%
4.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
2.36
0.91
Gent xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
4.67
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
19%
5.19
5%
19.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.4 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Gent?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Gent expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 0.91 for Gent, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Gent?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Union St. Gilloise come into this having played 79 games, going 48W 20D 11L for 2.08 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W.
On the other side, Gent sit at 1.51 PPG from 79 outings (32W 23D 24L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Union St. Gilloise carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Gent — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Union St. Gilloise's home form reads 26W 8D 5L across 39 games on their own ground, a 2.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Gent have taken 1.41 points per game from 39 outings (14W 13D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Gent are on 1.54 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 79 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Current Season
Gent
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Gent in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 48W 20D 11L in their last 79 games (2.08 PPG), while Gent have gone 32W 23D 24L in their last 79 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Gent away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.21 PPG; Gent away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or Gent been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Gent in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 21 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union St. Gilloise won 0-3 on 5 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union St. Gilloise have gone 1W 4D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gent — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Union St. Gilloise
6
Draws
0
Gent
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Gent?
From 10 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 4, Gent have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Gent last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Gent 0-0 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Gent?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Gent are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 56%, Gent 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Union St. Gilloise) and 44% (Gent).
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Gent in 38%; Gent in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Gent away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play Gent?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 44% of Gent's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs Gent usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Union St. Gilloise's recent games and 44% of Gent's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Gent tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Gent in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union St. Gilloise cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Gent.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Gent 3-1 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Championship Round - 10, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.45 xG and Gent 0.91 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.18 / defence 0.88 against Gent attack 0.92 / defence 0.84, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 48% | Draw 31% | Gent 21%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 58%, Gent 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Gent's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.51. That form edge translated into the three points. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.05 average — above their attacking norm. Gent (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.