Anderlecht 0-1 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Anderlecht at 37%, yet in-form Union St. Gilloise provide a compelling counter-argument — this Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Championship Round - 8 sees Union St. Gilloise travel to Lotto Park to take on Anderlecht. The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 May 2025, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Anderlecht stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters this season, Anderlecht have posted 5W 1D 4L at Lotto Park — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Union St. Gilloise have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Union St. Gilloise's away record: 8W 1D 1L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Union St. Gilloise are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Anderlecht, 2 for Union St. Gilloise and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2025, ended 0–2 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Anderlecht trading profile (77 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Union St. Gilloise trading profile (77 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Anderlecht 51% versus Union St. Gilloise 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Anderlecht 53% | Union St. Gilloise 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Anderlecht 1.44 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Anderlecht attack 1.224 / defence 0.985 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.226 / defence 0.796. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.113. Union St. Gilloise's defence strength of 0.796 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Union St. Gilloise have an above-average attack strength of 1.226 — the away xG of 1.34 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 60 Anderlecht games / 60 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Anderlecht 37% | Draw 29% | Union St. Gilloise 33%. Fair-value odds: Anderlecht 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Union St. Gilloise 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Anderlecht as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Union St. Gilloise (2.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Anderlecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Anderlecht 40% | Union St. Gilloise 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Championship Round - 8 | Venue: Lotto Park • Kick-off: Saturday 10 May 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Anderlecht 37% | Draw 29% | Union St. Gilloise 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Anderlecht 1.44 / Union St. Gilloise 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Anderlecht attack 1.224 / def 0.985 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.226 / def 0.796 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Anderlecht (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Anderlecht xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Union St. Gilloise xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 10 May 2025 at Lotto Park.
What was the final score in Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise?
Anderlecht 0 - 1 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Lotto Park.
What competition is Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise is a Championship Round - 8 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives Anderlecht a 37% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Anderlecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise?
Record (4 meetings): Anderlecht 0W | Draws 2 | Union St. Gilloise 2W.
What form are Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise in?
Anderlecht (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Anderlecht's attack at 1.22x the league average against Union St. Gilloise's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Union St. Gilloise's attack versus Anderlecht's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Anderlecht Win
37%
2.68
29%
3.40
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Anderlecht xG
Total xG
2.78
1.34
Union St. Gilloise xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
10%
10.27
8%
12.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Anderlecht and 1.34 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Anderlecht's recent record stands at 40W 18D 19L from 77 games, a 1.79 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-W in the last five.
Union St. Gilloise, meanwhile, have gone 46W 20D 11L across 77 games — 2.05 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Anderlecht on 1.79 PPG, Union St. Gilloise on 2.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Anderlecht have managed 24W 7D 7L from 38 games — 2.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union St. Gilloise's away record stands at 20W 12D 6L across 38 trips, a 1.89 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Anderlecht are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 0.99 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 1.86 scored and 0.91 conceded. Union St. Gilloise's attacking output running into Anderlecht's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Anderlecht have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Union St. Gilloise in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 77 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Anderlecht
Current Season
Union St. Gilloise
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
Anderlecht have gone 40W 18D 19L in their last 77 games (1.79 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 46W 20D 11L in their last 77 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Anderlecht at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Anderlecht's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Anderlecht at home: 2.08 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 1.89 PPG.
Have Anderlecht or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
Anderlecht have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Union St. Gilloise have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 May 2026, when Union St. Gilloise won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Anderlecht's record when hosting Union St. Gilloise specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Anderlecht
2
Draws
7
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise?
From 10 meetings on record, Anderlecht have won 1, Union St. Gilloise have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Union St. Gilloise 3-0 Anderlecht.
Who has won more matches between Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Anderlecht 47%, Union St. Gilloise 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Anderlecht) and 53% (Union St. Gilloise). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Anderlecht keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Union St. Gilloise in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Anderlecht home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Anderlecht play Union St. Gilloise?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Anderlecht's recent matches and 55% of Union St. Gilloise's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Anderlecht's matches and 53% of Union St. Gilloise's.
Do Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
Anderlecht have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Union St. Gilloise defy the odds to beat Anderlecht 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Anderlecht 0-1 at Lotto Park, Championship Round - 8, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Anderlecht 1.44 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.34 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Anderlecht fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Anderlecht attack 1.22 / defence 0.98 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.23 / defence 0.80, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Anderlecht 37% | Draw 29% | Union St. Gilloise 33%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Union St. Gilloise win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Anderlecht 53%, Union St. Gilloise 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Anderlecht's trading profile (77 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (77 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Anderlecht 1.79 PPG, Union St. Gilloise 2.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union St. Gilloise win broke the near-deadlock. Anderlecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.