Union St. Gilloise 1-2 Club Brugge KV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Club Brugge KV at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union St. Gilloise vs Club Brugge KV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Union St. Gilloise and Club Brugge KV meet at Stade Joseph Mariën in Jupiler Pro League, Championship Round - 4. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 April 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Union St. Gilloise (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Union St. Gilloise have posted 7W 2D 1L at Stade Joseph Mariën — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Union St. Gilloise are significantly better at Stade Joseph Mariën than their overall form suggests.
Club Brugge KV have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Club Brugge KV's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Union St. Gilloise against 1.70 for Club Brugge KV. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Union St. Gilloise register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Club Brugge KV in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Union St. Gilloise — key trading statistics (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games).
Club Brugge KV — key trading statistics (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union St. Gilloise 70% and Club Brugge KV 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 66% | Club Brugge KV 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.43 xG and Club Brugge KV 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.113 / defence 1.007 | Club Brugge KV attack 1.317 / defence 0.814. League average goals — home 1.572 / away 1.176. Club Brugge KV have an above-average attack strength of 1.317 — the away xG of 1.56 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 64 Union St. Gilloise games / 64 Club Brugge KV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 35% | Draw 24% | Club Brugge KV 41%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 2.86 | Draw 4.17 | Club Brugge KV 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Club Brugge KV at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Club Brugge KV if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Union St. Gilloise 80% | Club Brugge KV 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Club Brugge KV | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Championship Round - 4 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Apr 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 35% | Draw 24% | Club Brugge KV 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.43 / Club Brugge KV 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.113 / def 1.007 | Club Brugge KV attack 1.317 / def 0.814 | league avg home 1.572 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Club Brugge KV (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Club Brugge KV xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Club Brugge KV kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Club Brugge KV kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 21 April 2024 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Club Brugge KV?
Union St. Gilloise 1 - 2 Club Brugge KV.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Club Brugge KV being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Club Brugge KV part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Club Brugge KV is a Championship Round - 4 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Club Brugge KV?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 35% chance of winning, Club Brugge KV a 41% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Club Brugge KV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Club Brugge KV?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Club Brugge KV will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Club Brugge KV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Club Brugge KV?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Club Brugge KV in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Club Brugge KV (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Union St. Gilloise's attack at 1.11x the league average against Club Brugge KV's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Club Brugge KV's attack (1.32x) against Union St. Gilloise's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Club Brugge KV Win
35%
2.86
24%
4.11
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
2.98
1.56
Club Brugge KV xG
2.86
35%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
21%
4.75
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
7%
13.62
10%
10.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.2 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Club Brugge KV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Club Brugge KV expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 1.56 for Club Brugge KV, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Club Brugge KV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Union St. Gilloise come into this having played 73 games, going 46W 15D 12L for 2.10 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, Club Brugge KV sit at 1.68 PPG from 73 outings (34W 21D 18L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five.
Union St. Gilloise carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Club Brugge KV — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Union St. Gilloise's home form reads 25W 5D 6L across 36 games on their own ground, a 2.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Club Brugge KV have taken 1.33 points per game from 36 outings (13W 9D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Club Brugge KV are on 1.92 scored and 1.08 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Union St. Gilloise have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 73 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Current Season
Club Brugge KV
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Club Brugge KV in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 46W 15D 12L in their last 73 games (2.10 PPG), while Club Brugge KV have gone 34W 21D 18L in their last 73 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Club Brugge KV away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.22 PPG; Club Brugge KV away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or Club Brugge KV been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Club Brugge KV in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Club Brugge KV won 5-0 on 17 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union St. Gilloise have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Club Brugge KV — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Union St. Gilloise
4
Draws
3
Club Brugge KV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Club Brugge KV?
From 10 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 3, Club Brugge KV have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Club Brugge KV last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Club Brugge KV 5-0 Union St. Gilloise.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Club Brugge KV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 67%, Club Brugge KV 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Union St. Gilloise and 61% for Club Brugge KV. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Club Brugge KV in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Club Brugge KV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play Club Brugge KV?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Union St. Gilloise's games and 56% of Club Brugge KV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs Club Brugge KV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Union St. Gilloise's matches and 61% of Club Brugge KV's.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Club Brugge KV tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Club Brugge KV in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Club Brugge KV edge out Union St. Gilloise 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Club Brugge KV beat Union St. Gilloise 1-2 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Championship Round - 4, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.43 xG and Club Brugge KV 1.56 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.11 / defence 1.01 against Club Brugge KV attack 1.32 / defence 0.81, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 35% | Draw 24% | Club Brugge KV 41%, with Club Brugge KV to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 66%, Club Brugge KV 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Club Brugge KV's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.68. Form was overturned, with Club Brugge KV winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.