Genk 2-1 Anderlecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Anderlecht at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Genk vs Anderlecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Cegeka Arena plays host to Genk versus Anderlecht in Jupiler Pro League, Championship Round - 4. Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Genk have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Cegeka Arena, Genk have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Anderlecht (all games): 8W 0D 2L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Anderlecht have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Anderlecht arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Genk, 1 for Anderlecht and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Dec 2023, ended 1–2 with Anderlecht winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Genk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Anderlecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genk 61% versus Anderlecht 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genk 58% | Anderlecht 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genk 1.31 xG and Anderlecht 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genk attack 1.038 / defence 0.955 | Anderlecht attack 1.365 / defence 0.804. League average goals — home 1.572 / away 1.176. Anderlecht have an above-average attack strength of 1.365 — the away xG of 1.53 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 64 Genk games / 63 Anderlecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genk 33% | Draw 25% | Anderlecht 43%. Fair-value odds: Genk 3.03 | Draw 4.00 | Anderlecht 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Anderlecht at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Anderlecht if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Genk 40% | Anderlecht 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genk vs Anderlecht | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Championship Round - 4 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genk 33% | Draw 25% | Anderlecht 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Genk 1.31 / Anderlecht 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Genk attack 1.038 / def 0.955 | Anderlecht attack 1.365 / def 0.804 | league avg home 1.572 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Anderlecht (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Genk xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Anderlecht xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genk vs Anderlecht kick off?
Genk vs Anderlecht kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in Genk vs Anderlecht?
Genk 2 - 1 Anderlecht.
Where is Genk vs Anderlecht being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is Genk vs Anderlecht part of?
Genk vs Anderlecht is a Championship Round - 4 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Genk vs Anderlecht?
Our statistical model gives Genk a 33% chance of winning, Anderlecht a 43% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Anderlecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genk vs Anderlecht?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Genk and Anderlecht will score (BTTS).
Will Genk vs Anderlecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Anderlecht?
Record (2 meetings): Genk 0W | Draws 1 | Anderlecht 1W.
What form are Genk and Anderlecht in?
Genk (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Anderlecht (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Genk's attack at 1.04x the league average against Anderlecht's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Anderlecht's attack (1.36x) against Genk's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from 64/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Anderlecht Win
33%
3.07
25%
4.02
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Genk xG
Total xG
2.84
1.53
Anderlecht xG
3.07
33%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
22%
4.63
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
7%
14.22
11%
8.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.7 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.7 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genk vs Anderlecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Genk and Anderlecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Genk and 1.53 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Genk vs Anderlecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Genk's recent record stands at 34W 19D 13L from 66 games, a 1.83 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-D in the last five.
Anderlecht, meanwhile, have gone 33W 16D 17L across 66 games — 1.74 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.83 PPG for Genk against 1.74 for Anderlecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Genk have managed 18W 9D 5L from 32 games — 1.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Anderlecht's away record stands at 14W 9D 9L across 32 trips, a 1.59 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Genk are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Anderlecht are on 1.68 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Genk have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 66 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genk
Current Season
Anderlecht
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genk and Anderlecht in coming into this match?
Genk have gone 34W 19D 13L in their last 66 games (1.83 PPG), while Anderlecht have gone 33W 16D 17L in their last 66 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genk at home or Anderlecht away?
Genk's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genk at home: 1.97 PPG; Anderlecht away: 1.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genk have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Anderlecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Genk
2
Draws
2
Anderlecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Anderlecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Genk have won 6, Anderlecht have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Genk and Anderlecht last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Genk 2-0 Anderlecht.
Who has won more matches between Genk and Anderlecht?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genk 59%, Anderlecht 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Genk) and 53% (Anderlecht). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Anderlecht in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genk home games / Anderlecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genk play Anderlecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Genk's games and 59% of Anderlecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Genk vs Anderlecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Genk's matches and 53% of Anderlecht's.
Do Genk and Anderlecht tend to score early?
Genk have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Anderlecht in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Genk defy the odds to beat Anderlecht 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genk beat Anderlecht 2-1 at Cegeka Arena, Championship Round - 4, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 1.31 xG and Anderlecht 1.53 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 1.04 / defence 0.95 against Anderlecht attack 1.36 / defence 0.80, drawn from 64/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genk 33% | Draw 25% | Anderlecht 43%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Genk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 58%, Anderlecht 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genk's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Anderlecht's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genk 1.83 PPG, Anderlecht 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genk win broke the near-deadlock. Anderlecht (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.