Union St. Gilloise 1-0 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 4 as Union St. Gilloise welcome Charleroi to Stade Joseph Mariën. Kick-off is set for Friday 16 August 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Union St. Gilloise have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Union St. Gilloise have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Union St. Gilloise's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Stade Joseph Mariën this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Charleroi — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Charleroi have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Charleroi's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Union St. Gilloise 1.80 PPG, Charleroi 2.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Union St. Gilloise have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 5 past contests while Charleroi have managed just 0 wins.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2023, ended 3–1 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
The historical record gives Union St. Gilloise a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Union St. Gilloise in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Charleroi in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union St. Gilloise 69% and Charleroi 51% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 67% | Charleroi 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.69 xG and Charleroi 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.113 / defence 1.001 | Charleroi attack 1.204 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.599 / away 1.192. Charleroi have an above-average attack strength of 1.204 — the away xG of 1.44 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 33 Union St. Gilloise games / 33 Charleroi games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 43% | Draw 25% | Charleroi 32%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | Charleroi 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union St. Gilloise at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.12 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Union St. Gilloise 80% | Charleroi 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Friday 16 Aug 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 43% | Draw 25% | Charleroi 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.69 / Charleroi 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.113 / def 1.001 | Charleroi attack 1.204 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.599 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Charleroi xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 16 August 2024 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi?
Union St. Gilloise 1 - 0 Charleroi.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 43% chance of winning, Charleroi a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Charleroi?
Record (5 meetings): Union St. Gilloise 5W | Draws 0 | Charleroi 0W.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Charleroi in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Charleroi (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Union St. Gilloise's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Charleroi's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. The same calculation in reverse, Charleroi's attack versus Union St. Gilloise's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
43%
2.33
25%
4.01
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
3.12
1.44
Charleroi xG
2.33
43%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
24%
4.21
19%
5.39
Win to Nil
10%
9.82
6%
16.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.7 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 1.44 for Charleroi, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Union St. Gilloise's recent record stands at 23W 10D 6L from 39 games, a 2.03 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Charleroi, meanwhile, have gone 14W 9D 16L across 39 games — 1.31 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Charleroi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union St. Gilloise by 0.72 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Charleroi heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Union St. Gilloise have managed 12W 4D 3L from 19 games — 2.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charleroi's away record stands at 5W 4D 10L across 19 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.08 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union St. Gilloise have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Early Season
Charleroi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 23W 10D 6L in their last 39 games (2.03 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 14W 9D 16L in their last 39 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Charleroi away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.11 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Feb 2022, when Union St. Gilloise won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union St. Gilloise's record when hosting Charleroi specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Union St. Gilloise
1
Draws
0
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 9, Charleroi have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Charleroi 2-3 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Charleroi?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 74%, Charleroi 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Union St. Gilloise and 47% for Charleroi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Charleroi in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play Charleroi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Union St. Gilloise's games and 42% of Charleroi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Union St. Gilloise's matches and 47% of Charleroi's.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Charleroi tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union St. Gilloise edge out Charleroi 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Charleroi 1-0 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Regular Season - 4, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.69 xG and Charleroi 1.44 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Charleroi landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.11 / defence 1.00 against Charleroi attack 1.20 / defence 0.95, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 43% | Draw 25% | Charleroi 32%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 67%, Charleroi 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Charleroi's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.31. Form held, and they took the win. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.