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Prediction vindicated as Union St. Gilloise edge out Antwerp 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union St. Gilloise beat Antwerp 2-1 at Stade Joseph Marien, Regular Season - 26, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.24 xG and Antwerp 0.59 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.19 / defence 0.55 against Antwerp attack 0.81 / defence 0.81, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 52% | Draw 31% | Antwerp 17%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 43%, Antwerp 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (65 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.

Antwerp's trading profile (65 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.26. That form edge translated into the three points. Antwerp (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights