Standard Liege 0-0 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Standard Liege at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Maurice Dufrasne plays host to Standard Liege versus Union St. Gilloise in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Friday 20 September 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Standard Liege have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Standard Liege have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Standard Liege's home record at Stade Maurice Dufrasne: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Maurice Dufrasne. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Standard Liege are significantly better at Stade Maurice Dufrasne than their overall form suggests.
Union St. Gilloise's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Union St. Gilloise have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Union St. Gilloise have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Union St. Gilloise arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Union St. Gilloise hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 6 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2024, ended 1–2 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Union St. Gilloise have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Standard Liege — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Union St. Gilloise — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Standard Liege 49% versus Union St. Gilloise 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Standard Liege 43% | Union St. Gilloise 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Standard Liege 1.13 xG and Union St. Gilloise 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Standard Liege attack 0.790 / defence 0.696 | Union St. Gilloise attack 0.862 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.557 / away 1.144. Standard Liege's attack strength of 0.790 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Standard Liege's defence rating of 0.696 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 Standard Liege games / 37 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Standard Liege 46% | Draw 33% | Union St. Gilloise 22%. Fair-value odds: Standard Liege 2.17 | Draw 3.03 | Union St. Gilloise 4.55. Standard Liege hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Union St. Gilloise's lower xG of 0.69 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Standard Liege are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Union St. Gilloise (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Standard Liege if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.81 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Standard Liege 30% | Union St. Gilloise 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stade Maurice Dufrasne • Kick-off: Friday 20 Sep 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Standard Liege 46% | Draw 33% | Union St. Gilloise 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 34% | xG Standard Liege 1.13 / Union St. Gilloise 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Standard Liege attack 0.790 / def 0.696 | Union St. Gilloise attack 0.862 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.557 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: Standard Liege (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Standard Liege xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Union St. Gilloise xG
34%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 20 September 2024 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What was the final score in Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise?
Standard Liege 0 - 0 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What competition is Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives Standard Liege a 46% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 22% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Standard Liege the favourite.
Will both teams score in Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Standard Liege and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and Union St. Gilloise?
Record (6 meetings): Standard Liege 1W | Draws 0 | Union St. Gilloise 5W.
What form are Standard Liege and Union St. Gilloise in?
Standard Liege (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Standard Liege's attack rating (0.79) and Union St. Gilloise's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Union St. Gilloise's attack (0.86x) against Standard Liege's defence (0.70x) — and the away total comes out at 0.69.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.7%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Standard Liege Win
46%
2.19
33%
3.07
22%
4.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Standard Liege xG
Total xG
1.81
0.69
Union St. Gilloise xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
4.59
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.93
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
23%
4.35
7%
14.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.3 | 11.2 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.4 | 12.6 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 7.1 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.9%.
How many goals are Standard Liege and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Standard Liege and 0.69 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 1.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Standard Liege's recent record stands at 11W 17D 19L from 47 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Standard Liege, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Union St. Gilloise, meanwhile, have gone 27W 12D 8L across 47 games — 1.98 PPG, with L-W-D-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union St. Gilloise by 0.92 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Standard Liege heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Standard Liege have managed 8W 9D 6L from 23 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union St. Gilloise's away record stands at 11W 7D 5L across 23 trips, a 1.74 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Standard Liege are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 1.85 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Standard Liege
Early Season
Union St. Gilloise
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Standard Liege and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
Standard Liege have gone 11W 17D 19L in their last 47 games (1.06 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 27W 12D 8L in their last 47 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Standard Liege at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Union St. Gilloise's away record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Standard Liege at home: 1.43 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 1.74 PPG.
Have Standard Liege or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
Standard Liege have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union St. Gilloise won 4-0 on 28 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Standard Liege have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union St. Gilloise — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Standard Liege
2
Draws
7
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and Union St. Gilloise?
From 10 meetings on record, Standard Liege have won 1, Union St. Gilloise have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Standard Liege and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Standard Liege 1-1 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Standard Liege and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Standard Liege see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Standard Liege 35%, Union St. Gilloise 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 26% (Standard Liege) and 56% (Union St. Gilloise).
On the defensive side: Standard Liege keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Union St. Gilloise in 30%; Standard Liege have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Standard Liege home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Standard Liege play Union St. Gilloise?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Standard Liege's recent matches and 56% of Union St. Gilloise's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Standard Liege's recent games and 56% of Union St. Gilloise's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Standard Liege and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
Standard Liege have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Standard Liege's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Regular Season - 8, as Standard Liege and Union St. Gilloise drew 0-0 in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liege 1.13 xG and Union St. Gilloise 0.69 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Standard Liege fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liege attack 0.79 / defence 0.70 against Union St. Gilloise attack 0.86 / defence 0.92, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Standard Liege 46% | Draw 33% | Union St. Gilloise 22%, with Standard Liege to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liege 43%, Union St. Gilloise 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Standard Liege's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Standard Liege (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.