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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as St. Truiden edge out Standard Liege 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

St. Truiden beat Standard Liege 1-2 at Maurice Dufrasnestadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liege 1.06 xG and St. Truiden 1.20 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liege attack 0.81 / defence 0.93 against St. Truiden attack 1.12 / defence 0.98, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Standard Liege 32% | Draw 29% | St. Truiden 39%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liege 34%, St. Truiden 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Standard Liege's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

St. Truiden's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Standard Liege 1.24 PPG, St. Truiden 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St. Truiden win broke the near-deadlock. Standard Liege (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. St. Truiden (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights