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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Standard Liege edge out OH Leuven 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Standard Liege beat OH Leuven 2-1 at Maurice Dufrasnestadion, Conference League Group - 37, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liege 1.14 xG and OH Leuven 1.13 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Standard Liege beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liege attack 0.80 / defence 0.92 against OH Leuven attack 0.93 / defence 1.06, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Standard Liege 36% | Draw 29% | OH Leuven 35%, with Standard Liege to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liege 37%, OH Leuven 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Standard Liege's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

OH Leuven's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Standard Liege 1.26 PPG, OH Leuven 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Standard Liege win broke the near-deadlock. Standard Liege (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.84 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights