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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Genk defy the odds to beat Standard Liege 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Genk beat Standard Liege 1-2 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Regular Season - 26, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liege 1.12 xG and Genk 0.98 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Genk outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liege attack 0.74 / defence 0.74 against Genk attack 1.21 / defence 0.99, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Standard Liege 35% | Draw 36% | Genk 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Genk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liege 43%, Genk 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Standard Liege's trading profile (65 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Genk's trading profile (65 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Genk arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.14. That form edge translated into the three points. Standard Liege (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights