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Shock result as Charleroi defy the odds to beat Standard Liege 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Charleroi beat Standard Liege 0-1 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Conference League Play-off Group - 7, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liege 1.12 xG and Charleroi 1.06 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Standard Liege fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liege attack 0.72 / defence 0.88 against Charleroi attack 1.08 / defence 1.06, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Standard Liege 34% | Draw 34% | Charleroi 32%, with Standard Liege to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Charleroi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liege 44%, Charleroi 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Standard Liege's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Charleroi's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Standard Liege 1.12 PPG, Charleroi 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. Standard Liege (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward. Charleroi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights