St. Truiden 2-1 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Union St. Gilloise (42%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as St. Truiden face Union St. Gilloise.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Union St. Gilloise make the trip to Daio Wasabi Stayen to face St. Truiden in Jupiler Pro League (Championship Group - 36). The match kicks off on Saturday 2 May 2026 at 20:45 UK time.
Form
St. Truiden (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
St. Truiden's form when playing at home: 7W 0D 3L across their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — St. Truiden are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Union St. Gilloise's record over their last 10 games: 8W 2D 0L (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Union St. Gilloise have gone 3W 6D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Union St. Gilloise are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (2.60 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head sample leans to Union St. Gilloise, who have 7 wins from 8 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draw.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Apr 2026, ended St. Truiden 0–1 Union St. Gilloise — a Union St. Gilloise win.
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 7 wins from 8 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading & In-Play
St. Truiden — key trading statistics (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Union St. Gilloise — key trading statistics (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 63% versus Union St. Gilloise 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 59% | Union St. Gilloise 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.11 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 1.058 / defence 1.072 | Union St. Gilloise attack 0.942 / defence 0.786. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.321. Union St. Gilloise bring a tight defence (rating 0.786, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling St. Truiden's projected output down. Data: built from St. Truiden's last 60 games and Union St. Gilloise's last 60.
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 31% | Draw 27% | Union St. Gilloise 42%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 3.23 | Draw 3.68 | Union St. Gilloise 2.39. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: St. Truiden 50% (last 10 home games) | Union St. Gilloise 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Championship Group - 36 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 31% | Draw 27% | Union St. Gilloise 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG St. Truiden 1.11 / Union St. Gilloise 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 1.058 / def 1.072 | Union St. Gilloise attack 0.942 / def 0.786 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Union St. Gilloise xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise FAQs
What time does St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Daio Wasabi Stayen.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise?
St. Truiden 2 - 1 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (Championship Group - 36) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 31% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
St. Truiden's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Union St. Gilloise's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. Flip it around — Union St. Gilloise's attack (0.94x) against St. Truiden's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from St. Truiden's last 60 games and Union St. Gilloise's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
31%
3.23
27%
3.68
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.44
1.33
Union St. Gilloise xG
3.23
31%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
8%
12.26
14%
7.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 11.6 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.33 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
St. Truiden's recent record stands at 30W 15D 26L from 71 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-W in the last five.
Union St. Gilloise, meanwhile, have gone 45W 20D 6L across 71 games — 2.18 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union St. Gilloise by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over St. Truiden heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, St. Truiden have managed 18W 8D 9L from their last 35 home games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union St. Gilloise's away record stands at 17W 14D 4L across their last 35 away games, a 1.86 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
St. Truiden are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 1.70 scored and 0.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: St. Truiden have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Current Season
Union St. Gilloise
Current Season
St. Truiden (Home) vs Union St. Gilloise (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
St. Truiden
Current Season
Union St. Gilloise
Current Season
❓ St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise Form FAQs
What form are St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 30W 15D 26L in their last 71 games (1.48 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 45W 20D 6L in their last 71 (2.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Union St. Gilloise's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.77 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 1.86 PPG.
Have St. Truiden or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
St. Truiden have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise, the earliest from April 2023. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 2 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union St. Gilloise won St. Truiden 0-4 Union St. Gilloise on 8 Oct 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, St. Truiden have gone 1W 1D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Union St. Gilloise — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
St. Truiden
1
Draws
8
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, St. Truiden have won 1, Union St. Gilloise have won 8, and 1 has been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 September 2026: St. Truiden 0-3 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 51% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 49% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 63%, Union St. Gilloise 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (St. Truiden) and 37% (Union St. Gilloise).
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise in 40%; Union St. Gilloise in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of St. Truiden's games and 51% of Union St. Gilloise's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of St. Truiden's recent games and 37% of Union St. Gilloise's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of St. Truiden's recent matches and 66% of Union St. Gilloise's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as St. Truiden defy the odds to beat Union St. Gilloise 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden beat Union St. Gilloise 2-1 at Daio Wasabi Stayen, Championship Group - 36, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.11 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.33 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. St. Truiden beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 1.06 / defence 1.07 against Union St. Gilloise attack 0.94 / defence 0.79, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 31% | Draw 27% | Union St. Gilloise 42%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual St. Truiden win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 59%, Union St. Gilloise 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.48. Form was overturned, with St. Truiden winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.