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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union St. Gilloise vs KV Mechelen encounter.

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Match Analysis

Union St. Gilloise host KV Mechelen at Stade Joseph Marien in Jupiler Pro League, Championship Group - 37. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 10 May 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Union St. Gilloise — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

In front of their own supporters this season, Union St. Gilloise have posted 9W 1D 0L at Stade Joseph Marien — 2.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Joseph Marien. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.30 — Union St. Gilloise are significantly better at Stade Joseph Marien than their overall form suggests.

Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, KV Mechelen have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, KV Mechelen have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On current form, Union St. Gilloise have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Union St. Gilloise, 3 for KV Mechelen and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2026, ended 1–0 with Union St. Gilloise winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Union St. Gilloise in-play and half-time data (76 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.

KV Mechelen in-play and half-time data (76 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 46% versus KV Mechelen 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 45% | KV Mechelen 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.79 xG and KV Mechelen 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.174 / defence 0.666 | KV Mechelen attack 0.981 / defence 1.146. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.321. Union St. Gilloise's defence rating of 0.666 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 Union St. Gilloise games / 60 KV Mechelen games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 59% | Draw 23% | KV Mechelen 18%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | KV Mechelen 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Union St. Gilloise (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Union St. Gilloise are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Union St. Gilloise 40% | KV Mechelen 60%.

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