St. Truiden vs SK Beveren Prediction & Preview

Poisson model rates St. Truiden at 71% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as St. Truiden face SK Beveren.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

St. Truiden welcome SK Beveren to Daio Wasabi Stayen in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 26). Kick-off is Saturday 20 March 2027 at 16:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, St. Truiden stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, St. Truiden have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — St. Truiden are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, SK Beveren have recorded 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

SK Beveren's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (St. Truiden) versus 1.00 (SK Beveren). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, St. Truiden have won 0, SK Beveren 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 Sep 2026, ended St. Truiden 0–2 SK Beveren — a SK Beveren win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

St. Truiden trading profile (last 43 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).

SK Beveren trading profile (last 43 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 58% versus SK Beveren 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 63% | SK Beveren 65%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 2.64 xG and SK Beveren 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.998 / defence 1.079 | SK Beveren attack 0.727 / defence 1.497. League average goals — home 1.765 / away 1.356. SK Beveren's defence rating of 1.497 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing St. Truiden's projected output up. SK Beveren's attack rating of 0.727 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.06. Data: built from St. Truiden's last 41 games and SK Beveren's last 11.

Result probabilities: St. Truiden 71% | Draw 16% | SK Beveren 13%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 1.41 | Draw 6.23 | SK Beveren 7.70. The model has a clear lean to St. Truiden (71%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.70. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.70 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (2.64 / 1.06) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates St. Truiden as the most likely outcome at 71% — clear model lean.

The Poisson model projects 3.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (St. Truiden's last 10 home games and SK Beveren's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: St. Truiden 50% (last 10 home games) | SK Beveren 50% (last 10 away games).

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