St. Truiden vs SK Beveren – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates St. Truiden at 69%, yet in-form SK Beveren provide a compelling counter-argument — this St. Truiden vs SK Beveren fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 26 as St. Truiden welcome SK Beveren to Daio Wasabi Stayen. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 March 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, St. Truiden stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. St. Truiden have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Daio Wasabi Stayen, St. Truiden have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, SK Beveren have recorded 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. SK Beveren have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SK Beveren's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Form points away from home here. SK Beveren's 1.80 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of St. Truiden's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for St. Truiden, 1 for SK Beveren and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2026, ended 0–2 with SK Beveren winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
St. Truiden trading profile (39 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
SK Beveren trading profile (39 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 54% versus SK Beveren 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 59% | SK Beveren 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 2.04 xG and SK Beveren 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.881 / defence 1.100 | SK Beveren attack 0.523 / defence 1.477. League average goals — home 1.568 / away 1.192. SK Beveren bring a strong defensive rating of 1.477 — this is suppressing St. Truiden's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 St. Truiden games / 7 SK Beveren games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 69% | Draw 19% | SK Beveren 11%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 1.45 | Draw 5.26 | SK Beveren 9.09. The model has a clear lean to St. Truiden (69%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates St. Truiden as the most likely outcome at 69% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SK Beveren (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: St. Truiden 50% | SK Beveren 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs SK Beveren | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Mar 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 69% | Draw 19% | SK Beveren 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 43% | xG St. Truiden 2.04 / SK Beveren 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.881 / def 1.100 | SK Beveren attack 0.523 / def 1.477 | league avg home 1.568 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
0.69
SK Beveren xG
43%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs SK Beveren kick off?
St. Truiden vs SK Beveren is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 20 March 2027 at Daio Wasabi Stayen.
Where is St. Truiden vs SK Beveren being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen.
What competition is St. Truiden vs SK Beveren part of?
St. Truiden vs SK Beveren is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs SK Beveren?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 69% chance of winning, SK Beveren a 11% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs SK Beveren?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both St. Truiden and SK Beveren will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs SK Beveren have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and SK Beveren?
Record (1 meetings): St. Truiden 0W | Draws 0 | SK Beveren 1W.
What form are St. Truiden and SK Beveren in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. SK Beveren (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from St. Truiden's attack rating (0.88) and SK Beveren's defence rating (1.48), the model arrives at 2.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SK Beveren's attack versus St. Truiden's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 1-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
69%
1.45
19%
5.14
11%
8.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.73
0.69
SK Beveren xG
1.45
69%
Home win
5.14
19%
Draw
8.73
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
13%
7.68
Win to Nil
35%
2.87
1%
67.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 9.2 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.6 | 9.3 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs SK Beveren?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and SK Beveren expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for St. Truiden and 0.69 for SK Beveren, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs SK Beveren?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
St. Truiden's recent record stands at 20W 5D 14L from 39 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for St. Truiden, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SK Beveren, meanwhile, have gone 31W 4D 4L across 39 games — 2.49 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for SK Beveren, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours SK Beveren by 0.82 — a real, if not enormous, edge over St. Truiden heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, St. Truiden have managed 11W 3D 6L from 20 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SK Beveren's away record stands at 13W 3D 4L across 20 trips, a 2.10 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
St. Truiden are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; SK Beveren are on 2.08 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: SK Beveren in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Early Season
SK Beveren
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and SK Beveren in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 20W 5D 14L in their last 39 games (1.67 PPG), while SK Beveren have gone 31W 4D 4L in their last 39 (2.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or SK Beveren away?
SK Beveren's away record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.80 PPG; SK Beveren away: 2.10 PPG.
Have St. Truiden or SK Beveren been keeping clean sheets recently?
St. Truiden have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, SK Beveren in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
St. Truiden
0
Draws
1
SK Beveren
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and SK Beveren?
From 1 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 0, SK Beveren have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and SK Beveren last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when SK Beveren 2-0 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and SK Beveren?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 50%, SK Beveren 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for St. Truiden and 75% for SK Beveren. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: St. Truiden keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / SK Beveren away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play SK Beveren?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of St. Truiden's games and 60% of SK Beveren's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is St. Truiden vs SK Beveren usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of St. Truiden's matches and 75% of SK Beveren's.
Do St. Truiden and SK Beveren tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, SK Beveren in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.