St. Truiden 2-1 RAAL La Louvière – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St. Truiden at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this St. Truiden vs RAAL La Louvière fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 4 as St. Truiden welcome RAAL La Louvière to Daio Wasabi Stayen. Kick-off is set for Sunday 17 August 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, St. Truiden have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. St. Truiden have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, St. Truiden have posted 6W 2D 2L at Daio Wasabi Stayen — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
RAAL La Louvière — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. RAAL La Louvière have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, RAAL La Louvière have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: St. Truiden 1.70 PPG, RAAL La Louvière 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
St. Truiden in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
RAAL La Louvière in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — St. Truiden 72% and RAAL La Louvière 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 62% | RAAL La Louvière 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.91 xG and RAAL La Louvière 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 1.220 / defence 0.904 | RAAL La Louvière attack 0.702 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.494 / away 1.093. Data: 33 St. Truiden games / 3 RAAL La Louvière games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 64% | Draw 25% | RAAL La Louvière 11%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 1.56 | Draw 4.00 | RAAL La Louvière 9.09. The model has a clear lean to St. Truiden (64%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates St. Truiden as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. This conflicts with form data: St. Truiden 70% | RAAL La Louvière 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs RAAL La Louvière | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Aug 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 64% | Draw 25% | RAAL La Louvière 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 44% | xG St. Truiden 1.91 / RAAL La Louvière 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 1.220 / def 0.904 | RAAL La Louvière attack 0.702 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.494 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
0.69
RAAL La Louvière xG
44%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs RAAL La Louvière kick off?
St. Truiden vs RAAL La Louvière kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 17 August 2025 at Daio Wasabi Stayen.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs RAAL La Louvière?
St. Truiden 2 - 1 RAAL La Louvière.
Where is St. Truiden vs RAAL La Louvière being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen.
What competition is St. Truiden vs RAAL La Louvière part of?
St. Truiden vs RAAL La Louvière is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs RAAL La Louvière?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 64% chance of winning, RAAL La Louvière a 11% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs RAAL La Louvière?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both St. Truiden and RAAL La Louvière will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs RAAL La Louvière have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and RAAL La Louvière?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are St. Truiden and RAAL La Louvière in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. RAAL La Louvière (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates St. Truiden's attack at 1.22x the league average against RAAL La Louvière's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, RAAL La Louvière's attack versus St. Truiden's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 1-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
64%
1.55
25%
4.04
11%
9.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.5%
Home win
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.60
0.69
RAAL La Louvière xG
1.55
64%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
9.17
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
50%
2.00
15%
6.74
Win to Nil
32%
3.11
2%
61.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 9.8 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.5 | 9.4 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs RAAL La Louvière?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and RAAL La Louvière expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for St. Truiden and 0.69 for RAAL La Louvière, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs RAAL La Louvière?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
St. Truiden's recent record stands at 11W 9D 12L from 32 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for St. Truiden, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
RAAL La Louvière, meanwhile, have gone 19W 8D 5L across 32 games — 2.03 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for RAAL La Louvière, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours RAAL La Louvière by 0.72 — a real, if not enormous, edge over St. Truiden heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, St. Truiden have managed 8W 5D 3L from 16 games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.31 PPG overall — St. Truiden are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
RAAL La Louvière's away record stands at 9W 4D 3L across 16 trips, a 1.94 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
St. Truiden are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; RAAL La Louvière are on 1.66 scored and 0.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: St. Truiden have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Last 32 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Early Season
RAAL La Louvière
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and RAAL La Louvière in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 11W 9D 12L in their last 32 games (1.31 PPG), while RAAL La Louvière have gone 19W 8D 5L in their last 32 (2.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or RAAL La Louvière away?
RAAL La Louvière's away record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.81 PPG; RAAL La Louvière away: 1.94 PPG.
Have St. Truiden or RAAL La Louvière been keeping clean sheets recently?
St. Truiden have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, RAAL La Louvière in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: St. Truiden have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Sep 2026, when St. Truiden won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St. Truiden's record when hosting RAAL La Louvière specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
3
St. Truiden
0
Draws
0
RAAL La Louvière
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and RAAL La Louvière?
From 3 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 3, RAAL La Louvière have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and RAAL La Louvière last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when St. Truiden 4-0 RAAL La Louvière.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and RAAL La Louvière?
St. Truiden have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
RAAL La Louvière are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — St. Truiden at 69%, RAAL La Louvière at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (St. Truiden) and 50% (RAAL La Louvière).
On the defensive side: RAAL La Louvière in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / RAAL La Louvière away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play RAAL La Louvière?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of St. Truiden's games and 62% of RAAL La Louvière's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is St. Truiden vs RAAL La Louvière usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of St. Truiden's recent games and 50% of RAAL La Louvière's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St. Truiden and RAAL La Louvière tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 94% of their recent matches, RAAL La Louvière in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as St. Truiden edge out RAAL La Louvière 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden beat RAAL La Louvière 2-1 at Daio Wasabi Stayen, Regular Season - 4, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.91 xG and RAAL La Louvière 0.69 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 1.22 / defence 0.90 against RAAL La Louvière attack 0.70 / defence 1.05, drawn from 33/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 64% | Draw 25% | RAAL La Louvière 11%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 62%, RAAL La Louvière 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
RAAL La Louvière's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, RAAL La Louvière arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.31. Form was overturned, with St. Truiden winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. RAAL La Louvière (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.