🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates St. Truiden at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this St. Truiden vs RAAL La Louvière fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 4 as St. Truiden welcome RAAL La Louvière to Daio Wasabi Stayen. Kick-off is set for Sunday 17 August 2025 at 15:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, St. Truiden have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. St. Truiden have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, St. Truiden have posted 6W 2D 2L at Daio Wasabi Stayen — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

RAAL La Louvière — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. RAAL La Louvière have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

On the road, RAAL La Louvière have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: St. Truiden 1.70 PPG, RAAL La Louvière 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Trading Patterns

St. Truiden in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).

RAAL La Louvière in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — St. Truiden 72% and RAAL La Louvière 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 62% | RAAL La Louvière 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.91 xG and RAAL La Louvière 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 1.220 / defence 0.904 | RAAL La Louvière attack 0.702 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.494 / away 1.093. Data: 33 St. Truiden games / 3 RAAL La Louvière games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: St. Truiden 64% | Draw 25% | RAAL La Louvière 11%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 1.56 | Draw 4.00 | RAAL La Louvière 9.09. The model has a clear lean to St. Truiden (64%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates St. Truiden as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. This conflicts with form data: St. Truiden 70% | RAAL La Louvière 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights