St. Truiden 1-2 OH Leuven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St. Truiden at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this St. Truiden vs OH Leuven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 10 as St. Truiden welcome OH Leuven to Daio Wasabi Stayen. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 November 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, St. Truiden have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
St. Truiden's home record at Daio Wasabi Stayen: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, OH Leuven stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for OH Leuven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OH Leuven's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
St. Truiden carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.10 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, St. Truiden have won 3, OH Leuven 3, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2026, ended 1–0 with St. Truiden winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
St. Truiden in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
OH Leuven in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 55% versus OH Leuven 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 57% | OH Leuven 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.42 xG and OH Leuven 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.857 / defence 1.031 | OH Leuven attack 0.807 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.746 / away 1.339. Data: 39 St. Truiden games / 39 OH Leuven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 44% | Draw 26% | OH Leuven 30%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | OH Leuven 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is St. Truiden at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St. Truiden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: St. Truiden 50% | OH Leuven 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs OH Leuven | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 44% | Draw 26% | OH Leuven 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG St. Truiden 1.42 / OH Leuven 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.857 / def 1.031 | OH Leuven attack 0.807 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.746 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.11
OH Leuven xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs OH Leuven kick off?
St. Truiden vs OH Leuven kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 1 November 2026 at Daio Wasabi Stayen.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs OH Leuven?
St. Truiden 1 - 2 OH Leuven.
Where is St. Truiden vs OH Leuven being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen.
What competition is St. Truiden vs OH Leuven part of?
St. Truiden vs OH Leuven is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs OH Leuven?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 44% chance of winning, OH Leuven a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs OH Leuven?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both St. Truiden and OH Leuven will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs OH Leuven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and OH Leuven?
Record (9 meetings): St. Truiden 3W | Draws 3 | OH Leuven 3W.
What form are St. Truiden and OH Leuven in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. OH Leuven (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates St. Truiden's attack at 0.86x the league average against OH Leuven's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, OH Leuven's attack versus St. Truiden's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
44%
2.28
26%
3.78
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.53
1.11
OH Leuven xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
14%
6.94
7%
13.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.6 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs OH Leuven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and OH Leuven expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.11 for OH Leuven, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs OH Leuven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 49 outings, St. Truiden have picked up 1.61 PPG on a 24W 7D 18L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
OH Leuven's form line: 11W 13D 25L from 49 games, 0.94 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-D. The sample for OH Leuven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, St. Truiden are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against OH Leuven.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, St. Truiden have posted 1.88 PPG from 24 outings (14W 3D 7L).
On the road, OH Leuven have gone 5W 6D 13L from 24 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St. Truiden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
St. Truiden are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; OH Leuven are on 1.00 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Blended
OH Leuven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and OH Leuven in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 24W 7D 18L in their last 49 games (1.61 PPG), while OH Leuven have gone 11W 13D 25L in their last 49 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or OH Leuven away?
St. Truiden's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.88 PPG; OH Leuven away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between St. Truiden and OH Leuven runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 1 November 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2023, when OH Leuven won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St. Truiden's record when hosting OH Leuven specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
St. Truiden
3
Draws
4
OH Leuven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and OH Leuven?
From 10 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 3, OH Leuven have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and OH Leuven last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2026, when St. Truiden 1-2 OH Leuven.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and OH Leuven?
OH Leuven have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
OH Leuven see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 50%, OH Leuven 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (St. Truiden) and 46% (OH Leuven).
On the defensive side: St. Truiden keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; OH Leuven in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / OH Leuven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play OH Leuven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of St. Truiden's recent matches and 50% of OH Leuven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St. Truiden vs OH Leuven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of St. Truiden's recent games and 46% of OH Leuven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St. Truiden and OH Leuven tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, OH Leuven in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as OH Leuven defy the odds to beat St. Truiden 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OH Leuven beat St. Truiden 1-2 at Daio Wasabi Stayen, Regular Season - 10, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.42 xG and OH Leuven 1.11 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. OH Leuven outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.86 / defence 1.03 against OH Leuven attack 0.81 / defence 0.95, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 44% | Draw 26% | OH Leuven 30%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual OH Leuven win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 57%, OH Leuven 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
OH Leuven's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, St. Truiden arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.94. Form was overturned, with OH Leuven winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. OH Leuven (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.