St. Truiden vs OH Leuven – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates St. Truiden at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St. Truiden vs OH Leuven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 10 as St. Truiden welcome OH Leuven to Daio Wasabi Stayen. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 November 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, St. Truiden have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. St. Truiden have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
St. Truiden's home record at Daio Wasabi Stayen: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, OH Leuven stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. OH Leuven have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
OH Leuven's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
St. Truiden carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, St. Truiden have won 3, OH Leuven 3, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2026, ended 1–0 with St. Truiden winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
St. Truiden in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
OH Leuven in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 58% versus OH Leuven 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 56% | OH Leuven 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.73 xG and OH Leuven 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.963 / defence 0.991 | OH Leuven attack 0.964 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.397. Data: 33 St. Truiden games / 33 OH Leuven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 47% | Draw 23% | OH Leuven 30%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 2.13 | Draw 4.35 | OH Leuven 3.33. St. Truiden hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is St. Truiden at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St. Truiden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.07 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: St. Truiden 70% | OH Leuven 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs OH Leuven | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 47% | Draw 23% | OH Leuven 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG St. Truiden 1.73 / OH Leuven 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.963 / def 0.991 | OH Leuven attack 0.964 / def 1.112 | league avg home 1.619 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.33
OH Leuven xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs OH Leuven kick off?
St. Truiden vs OH Leuven is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Sunday 1 November 2026 at Daio Wasabi Stayen.
Where is St. Truiden vs OH Leuven being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen.
What competition is St. Truiden vs OH Leuven part of?
St. Truiden vs OH Leuven is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs OH Leuven?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 47% chance of winning, OH Leuven a 30% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs OH Leuven?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both St. Truiden and OH Leuven will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs OH Leuven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and OH Leuven?
Record (10 meetings): St. Truiden 3W | Draws 4 | OH Leuven 3W.
What form are St. Truiden and OH Leuven in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. OH Leuven (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates St. Truiden's attack at 0.96x the league average against OH Leuven's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, OH Leuven's attack versus St. Truiden's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
47%
2.13
23%
4.26
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
3.07
1.33
OH Leuven xG
2.13
47%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
18%
5.66
Win to Nil
12%
8.10
5%
19.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.8 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs OH Leuven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and OH Leuven expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.33 for OH Leuven, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs OH Leuven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, St. Truiden have picked up 1.77 PPG on a 23W 7D 13L record — L-W-D-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for St. Truiden, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
OH Leuven's form line: 10W 10D 23L from 43 games, 0.93 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for OH Leuven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, St. Truiden are the form team by 0.84 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against OH Leuven.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, St. Truiden have posted 2.00 PPG from 21 outings (13W 3D 5L).
On the road, OH Leuven have gone 5W 5D 11L from 21 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St. Truiden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
St. Truiden are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; OH Leuven are on 1.00 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Early Season
OH Leuven
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and OH Leuven in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 23W 7D 13L in their last 43 games (1.77 PPG), while OH Leuven have gone 10W 10D 23L in their last 43 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or OH Leuven away?
St. Truiden's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 2.00 PPG; OH Leuven away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between St. Truiden and OH Leuven runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: St. Truiden have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2023, when OH Leuven won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St. Truiden's record when hosting OH Leuven specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
St. Truiden
4
Draws
3
OH Leuven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and OH Leuven?
From 10 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 3, OH Leuven have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and OH Leuven last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when St. Truiden 1-0 OH Leuven.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
OH Leuven see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 57%, OH Leuven 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (St. Truiden) and 48% (OH Leuven).
On the defensive side: St. Truiden keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; OH Leuven in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / OH Leuven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play OH Leuven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of St. Truiden's recent matches and 52% of OH Leuven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St. Truiden vs OH Leuven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of St. Truiden's recent games and 48% of OH Leuven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St. Truiden and OH Leuven tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, OH Leuven in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.