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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as St. Truiden edge out OH Leuven 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

St. Truiden beat OH Leuven 1-0 at Daio Wasabi Stayen, Regular Season - 21, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.42 xG and OH Leuven 0.85 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. OH Leuven landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 1.07 / defence 0.94 against OH Leuven attack 0.79 / defence 0.98, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 50% | Draw 27% | OH Leuven 23%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 61%, OH Leuven 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

St. Truiden's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

OH Leuven's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — St. Truiden 1.43 PPG, OH Leuven 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St. Truiden win broke the near-deadlock. St. Truiden (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights