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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as St. Truiden edge out KV Mechelen 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

St. Truiden beat KV Mechelen 1-0 at Daio Wasabi Stayen, Regular Season - 19, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.48 xG and KV Mechelen 1.43 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. KV Mechelen landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 1.15 / defence 1.06 against KV Mechelen attack 1.21 / defence 0.96, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 39% | Draw 25% | KV Mechelen 36%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 61%, KV Mechelen 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

St. Truiden's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

KV Mechelen's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — St. Truiden 1.37 PPG, KV Mechelen 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St. Truiden win broke the near-deadlock. St. Truiden (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. KV Mechelen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights