St. Truiden vs Kortrijk – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates St. Truiden at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St. Truiden vs Kortrijk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Kortrijk travel to Daio Wasabi Stayen to take on St. Truiden. The game is scheduled for Sunday 20 December 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, St. Truiden have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
St. Truiden's home record at Daio Wasabi Stayen: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — St. Truiden are significantly better at Daio Wasabi Stayen than their overall form suggests.
Kortrijk — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Kortrijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kortrijk away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: St. Truiden 0.80 PPG, Kortrijk 0.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
St. Truiden hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 10 previous encounters compared to 2 for Kortrijk, with 3 draws in between.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The historical record gives St. Truiden a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
St. Truiden in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Kortrijk in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 56% versus Kortrijk 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 61% | Kortrijk 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.67 xG and Kortrijk 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.806 / defence 1.101 | Kortrijk attack 0.585 / defence 1.152. League average goals — home 1.802 / away 1.343. Data: 40 St. Truiden games / 9 Kortrijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 56% | Draw 24% | Kortrijk 19%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Kortrijk 5.26. The model has a clear lean to St. Truiden (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates St. Truiden as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: St. Truiden 50% | Kortrijk 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Kortrijk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 56% | Draw 24% | Kortrijk 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 47% | xG St. Truiden 1.67 / Kortrijk 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.806 / def 1.101 | Kortrijk attack 0.585 / def 1.152 | league avg home 1.802 / away 1.343 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Kortrijk xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs Kortrijk kick off?
St. Truiden vs Kortrijk is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Sunday 20 December 2026 at Daio Wasabi Stayen.
Where is St. Truiden vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Kortrijk part of?
St. Truiden vs Kortrijk is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 56% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both St. Truiden and Kortrijk will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Kortrijk?
Record (10 meetings): St. Truiden 5W | Draws 3 | Kortrijk 2W.
What form are St. Truiden and Kortrijk in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Kortrijk (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from St. Truiden's attack rating (0.81) and Kortrijk's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kortrijk's attack versus St. Truiden's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 2-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
56%
1.77
24%
4.13
19%
5.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.54
0.86
Kortrijk xG
1.77
56%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
5.18
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
19%
5.33
Win to Nil
24%
4.21
4%
27.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 11.4 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for St. Truiden and 0.86 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Kortrijk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
St. Truiden's recent record stands at 20W 5D 16L from 41 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kortrijk, meanwhile, have gone 21W 5D 15L across 41 games — 1.66 PPG, with L-W-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Kortrijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: St. Truiden on 1.59 PPG, Kortrijk on 1.66. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, St. Truiden have managed 11W 3D 6L from 20 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kortrijk's away record stands at 6W 4D 10L across 20 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.66 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kortrijk's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St. Truiden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
St. Truiden are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 1.46 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Blended
Kortrijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 20W 5D 16L in their last 41 games (1.59 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 21W 5D 15L in their last 41 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Kortrijk away?
St. Truiden's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.80 PPG; Kortrijk away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2025, when Kortrijk won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St. Truiden's record when hosting Kortrijk specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
St. Truiden
3
Draws
2
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Kortrijk?
From 10 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 5, Kortrijk have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Kortrijk last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Kortrijk 2-2 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and Kortrijk?
St. Truiden have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 50%, Kortrijk 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (St. Truiden) and 50% (Kortrijk).
On the defensive side: St. Truiden keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Kortrijk in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play Kortrijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of St. Truiden's recent matches and 45% of Kortrijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St. Truiden vs Kortrijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of St. Truiden's recent games and 50% of Kortrijk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St. Truiden and Kortrijk tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Kortrijk in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.