St. Truiden vs Gent – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Gent at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St. Truiden vs Gent encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
St. Truiden and Gent meet at Daio Wasabi Stayen in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
St. Truiden (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. St. Truiden have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
St. Truiden's home record at Daio Wasabi Stayen: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Gent have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Gent have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Gent have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Gent are 0.90 PPG clear of St. Truiden in recent Jupiler Pro League fixtures (2.10 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 10 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for St. Truiden, 3 for Gent and 4 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
St. Truiden — key trading statistics (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Gent — key trading statistics (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 53% versus Gent 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 55% | Gent 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.20 xG and Gent 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 1.004 / defence 1.039 | Gent attack 1.196 / defence 0.744. League average goals — home 1.608 / away 1.232. Gent's defence strength of 0.744 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 36 St. Truiden games / 37 Gent games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 30% | Draw 25% | Gent 45%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 3.33 | Draw 4.00 | Gent 2.22. Gent hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gent are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gent if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: St. Truiden 50% | Gent 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Gent | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 30% | Draw 25% | Gent 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG St. Truiden 1.20 / Gent 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 1.004 / def 1.039 | Gent attack 1.196 / def 0.744 | league avg home 1.608 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Gent (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Gent xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs Gent kick off?
St. Truiden vs Gent is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Daio Wasabi Stayen.
Where is St. Truiden vs Gent being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Gent part of?
St. Truiden vs Gent is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Gent?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 30% chance of winning, Gent a 45% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Gent the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Gent?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both St. Truiden and Gent will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs Gent have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Gent?
Record (10 meetings): St. Truiden 3W | Draws 4 | Gent 3W.
What form are St. Truiden and Gent in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Gent (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
St. Truiden's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Gent's defensive record (0.74x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — Gent's attack (1.20x) against St. Truiden's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from 36/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gent Win
30%
3.35
25%
3.96
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.73
1.53
Gent xG
3.35
30%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
22%
4.62
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
6%
15.49
14%
7.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 10.0 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.0 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.2 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Gent?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Gent expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.53 for Gent, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Gent?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
St. Truiden's recent record stands at 24W 7D 16L from 47 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for St. Truiden, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Gent, meanwhile, have gone 19W 14D 14L across 47 games — 1.51 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Gent, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.68 PPG for St. Truiden against 1.51 for Gent. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, St. Truiden have managed 12W 3D 7L from 22 games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gent's away record stands at 7W 7D 8L across 22 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St. Truiden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
St. Truiden are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Gent are on 1.38 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Early Season
Gent
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and Gent in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 24W 7D 16L in their last 47 games (1.68 PPG), while Gent have gone 19W 14D 14L in their last 47 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Gent away?
St. Truiden's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.77 PPG; Gent away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: St. Truiden won 4-1 on 1 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, St. Truiden have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gent — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
St. Truiden
4
Draws
3
Gent
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Gent?
From 10 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 3, Gent have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Gent last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when St. Truiden 1-1 Gent.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Gent are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 50%, Gent 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (St. Truiden) and 59% (Gent). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: St. Truiden keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Gent in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Gent away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play Gent?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of St. Truiden's recent matches and 59% of Gent's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St. Truiden vs Gent usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of St. Truiden's matches and 59% of Gent's.
Do St. Truiden and Gent tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Gent in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.