St. Truiden vs Gent – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates St. Truiden at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St. Truiden vs Gent encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
St. Truiden and Gent meet at Daio Wasabi Stayen in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
St. Truiden (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. St. Truiden haven't played a Jupiler Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
St. Truiden's home record at Daio Wasabi Stayen: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — St. Truiden are significantly better at Daio Wasabi Stayen than their overall form suggests.
Gent have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 0W 6D 4L. Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Gent haven't played a Jupiler Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Gent have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward St. Truiden. A 0.80 PPG lead over Gent (1.40 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 10 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for St. Truiden, 3 for Gent and 4 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
St. Truiden — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Gent — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 55% versus Gent 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 55% | Gent 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.45 xG and Gent 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 1.016 / defence 1.022 | Gent attack 1.053 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.323. Data: 30 St. Truiden games / 30 Gent games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 38% | Draw 25% | Gent 37%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Gent 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, St. Truiden are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on St. Truiden if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: St. Truiden 60% | Gent 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Gent | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 38% | Draw 25% | Gent 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG St. Truiden 1.45 / Gent 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 1.016 / def 1.022 | Gent attack 1.053 / def 1.035 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.323 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Gent xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs Gent kick off?
St. Truiden vs Gent is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Daio Wasabi Stayen.
Where is St. Truiden vs Gent being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Gent part of?
St. Truiden vs Gent is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Gent?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 38% chance of winning, Gent a 37% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Gent?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both St. Truiden and Gent will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs Gent have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Gent?
Record (10 meetings): St. Truiden 3W | Draws 4 | Gent 3W.
What form are St. Truiden and Gent in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. St. Truiden (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about St. Truiden vs Gent?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
St. Truiden's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Gent's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. Flip it around — Gent's attack (1.05x) against St. Truiden's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
38%
2.62
25%
4.02
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.88
1.42
Gent xG
2.62
38%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
23%
4.27
Win to Nil
9%
10.89
9%
11.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.7 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Gent?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Gent expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.42 for Gent, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Gent?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
St. Truiden's recent record stands at 22W 5D 13L from 40 games, a 1.78 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-W in the last five. St. Truiden haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Gent, meanwhile, have gone 13W 13D 14L across 40 games — 1.30 PPG, with D-D-D-L-D in their last five. Gent haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours St. Truiden by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Gent heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, St. Truiden have managed 12W 2D 5L from 19 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gent's away record stands at 5W 6D 8L across 19 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St. Truiden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
St. Truiden are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Gent are on 1.30 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Pre-Season
Gent
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and Gent in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 22W 5D 13L in their last 40 games (1.78 PPG), while Gent have gone 13W 13D 14L in their last 40 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Gent away?
St. Truiden's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 2.00 PPG; Gent away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: St. Truiden won 4-1 on 1 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, St. Truiden have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gent — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
St. Truiden
4
Draws
3
Gent
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Gent?
From 10 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 3, Gent have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Gent last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when St. Truiden 1-1 Gent.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Gent are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 53%, Gent 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (St. Truiden) and 58% (Gent). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: St. Truiden keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Gent in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Gent away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play Gent?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of St. Truiden's games and 58% of Gent's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is St. Truiden vs Gent usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of St. Truiden's matches and 58% of Gent's.
Do St. Truiden and Gent tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Gent in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.