St. Truiden vs Genk – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates St. Truiden at 43%, yet in-form Genk provide a compelling counter-argument — this St. Truiden vs Genk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
St. Truiden host Genk at Daio Wasabi Stayen in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 29 November 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
St. Truiden — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
St. Truiden's home record at Daio Wasabi Stayen: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — St. Truiden are significantly better at Daio Wasabi Stayen than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Genk stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Genk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Genk have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Genk — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
Genk have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 10 encounters against St. Truiden's 1 victories.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2026, ended 0–1 with Genk winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Genk have won 4 of 10 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
St. Truiden in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Genk in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 56% versus Genk 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 58% | Genk 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.47 xG and Genk 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.805 / defence 1.102 | Genk attack 0.832 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.802 / away 1.343. Data: 40 St. Truiden games / 40 Genk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 43% | Draw 26% | Genk 32%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Genk 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, St. Truiden are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Genk (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St. Truiden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. This conflicts with form data: St. Truiden 50% | Genk 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Genk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Nov 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 43% | Draw 26% | Genk 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG St. Truiden 1.47 / Genk 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.805 / def 1.102 | Genk attack 0.832 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.802 / away 1.343 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Genk xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs Genk kick off?
St. Truiden vs Genk is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 on Sunday 29 November 2026 at Daio Wasabi Stayen.
Where is St. Truiden vs Genk being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Genk part of?
St. Truiden vs Genk is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Genk?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 43% chance of winning, Genk a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Genk?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both St. Truiden and Genk will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs Genk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Genk?
Record (10 meetings): St. Truiden 1W | Draws 5 | Genk 4W.
What form are St. Truiden and Genk in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Genk (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates St. Truiden's attack at 0.81x the league average against Genk's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Genk's attack versus St. Truiden's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
43%
2.34
26%
3.91
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.70
1.23
Genk xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
12%
8.02
7%
13.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.1 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Genk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Genk expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.23 for Genk, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Genk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
St. Truiden come into this having played 50 games, going 24W 7D 19L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Genk sit at 1.50 PPG from 50 outings (19W 18D 13L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Genk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: St. Truiden on 1.58 PPG, Genk on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
St. Truiden's home form reads 14W 3D 8L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Genk have taken 1.32 points per game from 25 outings (8W 9D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St. Truiden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
St. Truiden are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Genk are on 1.48 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Genk in 60%.
Last 50 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Blended
Genk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and Genk in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 24W 7D 19L in their last 50 games (1.58 PPG), while Genk have gone 19W 18D 13L in their last 50 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Genk away?
St. Truiden's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.80 PPG; Genk away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Genk go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
St. Truiden's record when hosting Genk specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
St. Truiden
5
Draws
4
Genk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Genk?
From 10 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 1, Genk have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Genk last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Genk 1-0 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and Genk?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 52%, Genk 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for St. Truiden and 64% for Genk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: St. Truiden keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Genk in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Genk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play Genk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of St. Truiden's games and 64% of Genk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is St. Truiden vs Genk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of St. Truiden's matches and 64% of Genk's.
Do St. Truiden and Genk tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Genk in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.