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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Charleroi cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over St. Truiden.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Charleroi beat St. Truiden 0-2 at Daio Wasabi Stayen, Regular Season - 23, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.31 xG and Charleroi 1.03 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. St. Truiden fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Charleroi outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 1.07 / defence 0.85 against Charleroi attack 1.00 / defence 0.97, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 42% | Draw 29% | Charleroi 29%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Charleroi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 60%, Charleroi 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

St. Truiden's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Charleroi's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — St. Truiden 1.48 PPG, Charleroi 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. St. Truiden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward. Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights