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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as St. Truiden defy the odds to beat Cercle Brugge 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

St. Truiden beat Cercle Brugge 2-1 at Daio Wasabi Stayen, Regular Season - 28, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.14 xG and Cercle Brugge 1.38 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. St. Truiden beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 1.03 / defence 0.97 against Cercle Brugge attack 1.09 / defence 0.85, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 31% | Draw 27% | Cercle Brugge 42%, with Cercle Brugge to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual St. Truiden win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 60%, Cercle Brugge 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

St. Truiden's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Cercle Brugge's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — St. Truiden 1.51 PPG, Cercle Brugge 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St. Truiden win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights