🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as St. Truiden edge out Beerschot VA 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

St. Truiden beat Beerschot VA 2-1 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, Relegation Round - 5, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 2.06 xG and Beerschot VA 0.88 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 1.10 / defence 1.12 against Beerschot VA attack 0.71 / defence 1.27, drawn from 60/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 63% | Draw 24% | Beerschot VA 13%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 55%, Beerschot VA 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

St. Truiden's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Beerschot VA's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — St. Truiden 1.20 PPG, Beerschot VA 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St. Truiden win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights