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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as St. Truiden edge out RAAL La Louvière 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

St. Truiden beat RAAL La Louvière 1-2 at Easi Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting RAAL La Louvière 0.77 xG and St. Truiden 1.17 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. St. Truiden outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RAAL La Louvière attack 0.60 / defence 0.88 against St. Truiden attack 1.12 / defence 0.98, drawn from 21/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it RAAL La Louvière 24% | Draw 31% | St. Truiden 45%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RAAL La Louvière 48%, St. Truiden 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

RAAL La Louvière's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

St. Truiden's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — RAAL La Louvière 1.70 PPG, St. Truiden 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St. Truiden win broke the near-deadlock. RAAL La Louvière (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights