🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

RAAL La Louvière and Genk share the spoils in a 5-5 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Easi Arena, Regular Season - 30, as RAAL La Louvière and Genk drew 5-5 in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting RAAL La Louvière 0.84 xG and Genk 1.31 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 5-5 for 10 actual goals. RAAL La Louvière beat their projection by 4.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Genk outscored their 1.31 projection by 3.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RAAL La Louvière attack 0.57 / defence 0.93 against Genk attack 1.11 / defence 1.16, drawn from 29/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it RAAL La Louvière 24% | Draw 28% | Genk 48%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 10, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RAAL La Louvière 47%, Genk 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

RAAL La Louvière's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Genk's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — RAAL La Louvière 1.59 PPG, Genk 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. RAAL La Louvière (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Genk (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights